Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss June 2026. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Read the researchThe Record
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Kyoji Horiguchi
36-6-0 (1 NC)
35y·5' 4"·63" reach·Orthodox
3:16
Control / 15m
time on top
+1.56
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
33%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.1
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in September 2015, 52 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Fired again Jun 2026
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 11 recorded bouts, 555 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 75%Body 16%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 70%Clinch 13%Ground 17%
And how often each lands
Head43%
Body66%
Legs77%
Distance42%
Clinch72%
Ground63%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
9Wins2 KO · 1 SUB · 6 DEC
2Losses1 KO · 1 SUB
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
44%
Pague
19%
Montague
60%
Reyes
13%
Gaudinot
4%
Johnson
2%
Camus
39%
Seery
30%
Bagautinov
45%
Ulanbekov
7%
Albazi
31%
Kape
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.09100%11
R24.21137%10
R34.35141%9
R41.40—1
R50.40—1
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min3.64
Strikes absorbed / min2.08
Striking accuracyof everything thrown47%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed64%
Takedowns / 15 min1.67
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land40%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed61%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.1
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together5.72
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 11 bouts13.9m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
42.4%
Landed at range
917 thrown over 11 bouts
34.4%
Expected
against these opponents
+8.1pp
Gap
above expected
82.4%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LManel KapeJun 2026KO R34:00 ctrl27 str2 td
Significant strikes
27 of 53 · 51%
Total strikes
53 of 89 · 60%
Takedowns
2 of 5 · 40%
Control
4:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 2:42
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 78%Body 15%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 74%Clinch 0%Ground 26%
WAmir AlbaziFeb 2026U-DEC1:02 ctrl73 str0 td
Significant strikes
73 of 136 · 54%
Total strikes
99 of 163 · 61%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
1:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 89%Body 4%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 3%Ground 0%
WTagir UlanbekovNov 2025SUB R35:34 ctrl49 str0 td
Significant strikes
49 of 77 · 64%
Total strikes
120 of 157 · 76%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
5:34
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 2:18
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 73%Body 8%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 51%Clinch 0%Ground 49%
WAli BagautinovNov 2016U-DEC4:32 ctrl55 str4 td
Significant strikes
55 of 92 · 60%
Total strikes
115 of 161 · 71%
Takedowns
4 of 9 · 44%
Control
4:32
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 85%Body 7%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 47%Clinch 49%Ground 4%
WNeil SeeryMay 2016U-DEC5:47 ctrl72 str6 td
Significant strikes
72 of 145 · 50%
Total strikes
83 of 158 · 53%
Takedowns
6 of 8 · 75%
Control
5:47
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 61%Body 25%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 69%Clinch 17%Ground 14%
WChico CamusSep 2015U-DEC0:20 ctrl78 str0 td
Significant strikes
78 of 224 · 35%
Total strikes
80 of 226 · 35%
Takedowns
0 of 5 · 0%
Control
0:20
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 76%Body 22%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 5%Ground 0%
LDemetrious JohnsonApr 2015SUB R51:02 ctrl31 str1 td
Significant strikes
31 of 91 · 34%
Total strikes
61 of 127 · 48%
Takedowns
1 of 5 · 20%
Control
1:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R5 4:59
Armbar From MountTarget
Head 58%Body 26%Legs 16%
Position
Distance 68%Clinch 32%Ground 0%
WLouis GaudinotJan 2015U-DEC1:58 ctrl44 str1 td
Significant strikes
44 of 108 · 41%
Total strikes
59 of 123 · 48%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
1:58
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 68%Body 23%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%
WJon Delos ReyesSep 2014KO R12:16 ctrl31 str0 td
Significant strikes
31 of 43 · 72%
Total strikes
49 of 62 · 79%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
2:16
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:48
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 71%Body 29%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 35%Clinch 35%Ground 29%
WDarrell MontagueMay 2014U-DEC2:47 ctrl65 str2 td
Significant strikes
65 of 147 · 44%
Total strikes
82 of 169 · 49%
Takedowns
2 of 2 · 100%
Control
2:47
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 78%Body 18%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 58%Clinch 5%Ground 37%
WDustin PagueOct 2013KO R23:52 ctrl30 str1 td
Significant strikes
30 of 50 · 60%
Total strikes
74 of 98 · 76%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
3:52
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 3:51
Punches to Head From MountTarget
Head 80%Body 3%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 33%Clinch 7%Ground 60%