Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss April 2026. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Read the researchThe Record
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Lando Vannata
12-8-2
34y·5' 9"·71" reach·Orthodox
1:07
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.19
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
50%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.7
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in March 2017, 44 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Fired again Apr 2026
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 14 recorded bouts, 711 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 51%Body 25%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 87%Clinch 8%Ground 5%
And how often each lands
Head35%
Body63%
Legs77%
Distance44%
Clinch65%
Ground52%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
4Wins1 KO · 1 SUB · 2 DEC
8Losses1 KO · 2 SUB · 5 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
16%
Ferguson
1%
Makdessi
1%
Teymur
8%
Green
7%
Klose
2%
Frevola
73%
Mariano
1%
Diakiese
0%
Medeiros
3%
Green
3%
Grundy
38%
Jourdain
1%
Zellhuber
39%
Flowers
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R14.45100%14
R24.69105%11
R34.44100%9
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.52
Strikes absorbed / min4.71
Striking accuracyof everything thrown45%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed54%
Takedowns / 15 min1.24
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land36%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed66%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.3
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together9.23
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 14 bouts11.2m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
44.5%
Landed at range
1,387 thrown over 14 bouts
38.4%
Expected
against these opponents
+6.0pp
Gap
above expected
78.6%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LDarrius FlowersApr 2026KO R22:16 ctrl27 str2 td
Significant strikes
27 of 36 · 75%
Total strikes
31 of 42 · 74%
Takedowns
2 of 7 · 29%
Control
2:16
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 0:52
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 70%Body 19%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 74%Clinch 11%Ground 15%
LDaniel ZellhuberApr 2023U-DEC0:06 ctrl51 str0 td
Significant strikes
51 of 91 · 56%
Total strikes
51 of 91 · 56%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
0:06
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 39%Body 24%Legs 37%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 4%Ground 0%
LCharles JourdainApr 2022SUB R10:57 ctrl8 str1 td
Significant strikes
8 of 14 · 57%
Total strikes
8 of 14 · 57%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:57
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Submission, R1 2:32
Guillotine Choke From Bottom GuardTarget
Head 63%Body 38%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 0%Ground 13%
WMike GrundyMay 2021S-DEC0:23 ctrl80 str1 td
Significant strikes
80 of 168 · 48%
Total strikes
83 of 173 · 48%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:23
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 50%Body 34%Legs 16%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 9%Ground 0%
LKing GreenAug 2020U-DEC0:27 ctrl54 str1 td
Significant strikes
54 of 127 · 43%
Total strikes
64 of 139 · 46%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
0:27
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 57%Body 30%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 17%Ground 0%
WYancy MedeirosFeb 2020U-DEC0:04 ctrl99 str0 td
Significant strikes
99 of 188 · 53%
Total strikes
100 of 189 · 53%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
0:04
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 36%Body 29%Legs 34%
Position
Distance 99%Clinch 1%Ground 0%
LMarc DiakieseSep 2019U-DEC0:06 ctrl25 str0 td
Significant strikes
25 of 70 · 36%
Total strikes
51 of 108 · 47%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:06
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 16%Body 32%Legs 52%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 4%Ground 0%
WMarcos MarianoFeb 2019SUB R13:35 ctrl20 str1 td
Significant strikes
20 of 40 · 50%
Total strikes
39 of 64 · 61%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
3:35
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 4:55
Kimura From Side ControlTarget
Head 90%Body 0%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 10%Clinch 0%Ground 90%
DMatt FrevolaNov 2018M-DEC0:20 ctrl67 str1 td
Significant strikes
67 of 164 · 41%
Total strikes
80 of 177 · 45%
Takedowns
1 of 5 · 20%
Control
0:20
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Majority decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 57%Body 24%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 4%Ground 3%
LDrakkar KloseJul 2018U-DEC1:00 ctrl50 str1 td
Significant strikes
50 of 133 · 38%
Total strikes
66 of 150 · 44%
Takedowns
1 of 4 · 25%
Control
1:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 36%Body 30%Legs 34%
Position
Distance 74%Clinch 26%Ground 0%
DKing GreenOct 2017S-DEC1:08 ctrl104 str4 td
Significant strikes
104 of 232 · 45%
Total strikes
111 of 239 · 46%
Takedowns
4 of 5 · 80%
Control
1:08
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 64%Body 18%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 6%Ground 9%
LDavid TeymurMar 2017U-DEC0:07 ctrl76 str1 td
Significant strikes
76 of 141 · 54%
Total strikes
79 of 144 · 55%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:07
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 47%Body 20%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 12%Ground 0%
WJohn MakdessiDec 2016KO R10:01 ctrl10 str0 td
Significant strikes
10 of 32 · 31%
Total strikes
10 of 32 · 31%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:01
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:40
Kick to Head At Distance Wheel KickTarget
Head 30%Body 50%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LTony FergusonJul 2016SUB R21:09 ctrl40 str0 td
Significant strikes
40 of 110 · 36%
Total strikes
42 of 112 · 38%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
1:09
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 2:22
D'Arce Choke After Drop to GroundTarget
Head 65%Body 23%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 5%Ground 10%