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Louis Smolka

17-9-0
35y·5' 9"·68" reach·Orthodox
4:15
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.56
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
75%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.3
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss December 2021. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again May 2022

Read the research

The Odometer

Backwards

Crossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in May 2014, 44 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.

Fired again May 2022

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 17 recorded bouts, 747 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 67%Body 26%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 61%Clinch 11%Ground 28%
And how often each lands
Head41%
Body68%
Legs90%
Distance40%
Clinch73%
Ground65%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

8Wins4 KO · 2 SUB · 2 DEC
9Losses2 KO · 3 SUB · 4 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

11%
Ozkilic
50%
Cariaso
11%
Vaculik
80%
Seery
32%
Holohan
73%
Nguyen
13%
Moreno
5%
Borg
18%
Elliott
0%
Nicolau
84%
Sumudaerji
39%
Schnell
3%
MacDonald
0%
Kenney
16%
Quinonez
0%
Morales
5%
Grant

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R14.53100%17
R25.32117%12
R33.9287%8

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min4.67
Strikes absorbed / min4.11
Striking accuracyof everything thrown47%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed53%
Takedowns / 15 min1.69
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land35%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed32%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.8
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together8.78
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 17 bouts9.4m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

39.9%
Landed at range
1,141 thrown over 17 bouts
36.5%
Expected
against these opponents
+3.4pp
Gap
above expected
72.9%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LDavey GrantMay 2022KO R30:35 ctrl71 str0 td
Significant strikes
71 of 139 · 51%
Total strikes
75 of 145 · 52%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
0:35
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 0:49
Punches to Head On Ground
Target
Head 65%Body 27%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 1%Ground 4%
This fight on UFCStats
LVince MoralesDec 2021KO R10:00 ctrl23 str0 td
Significant strikes
23 of 32 · 72%
Total strikes
23 of 32 · 72%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:02
Punch to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 22%Body 43%Legs 35%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 17%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WJose QuinonezDec 2020KO R21:09 ctrl59 str3 td
Significant strikes
59 of 116 · 51%
Total strikes
64 of 128 · 50%
Takedowns
3 of 4 · 75%
Control
1:09
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:15
Punches to Head From Back Control
Target
Head 59%Body 31%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 58%Clinch 22%Ground 20%
This fight on UFCStats
LCasey KenneyMay 2020SUB R10:00 ctrl18 str0 td
Significant strikes
18 of 43 · 42%
Total strikes
18 of 43 · 42%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 3:03
Guillotine Choke On Ground
Target
Head 22%Body 78%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 89%Clinch 11%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WRyan MacDonaldSep 2019KO R10:09 ctrl59 str0 td
Significant strikes
59 of 115 · 51%
Total strikes
60 of 116 · 52%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:09
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:43
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 46%Body 53%Legs 2%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 3%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LMatt SchnellMar 2019SUB R11:18 ctrl13 str0 td
Significant strikes
13 of 24 · 54%
Total strikes
14 of 25 · 56%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:18
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 3:18
Triangle Choke From Bottom Guard
Target
Head 69%Body 8%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 0%Ground 8%
This fight on UFCStats
WSumudaerjiNov 2018SUB R25:59 ctrl32 str2 td
Significant strikes
32 of 62 · 52%
Total strikes
42 of 76 · 55%
Takedowns
2 of 5 · 40%
Control
5:59
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 2:07
Armbar On Ground
Target
Head 94%Body 6%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 3%Clinch 6%Ground 91%
This fight on UFCStats
LMatheus NicolauDec 2017U-DEC0:01 ctrl49 str0 td
Significant strikes
49 of 159 · 31%
Total strikes
53 of 163 · 33%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:01
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 41%Body 47%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LTim ElliottApr 2017U-DEC2:40 ctrl41 str1 td
Significant strikes
41 of 97 · 42%
Total strikes
47 of 105 · 45%
Takedowns
1 of 4 · 25%
Control
2:40
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
4
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 85%Body 10%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 66%Clinch 7%Ground 27%
This fight on UFCStats
LRay BorgDec 2016U-DEC0:45 ctrl10 str0 td
Significant strikes
10 of 43 · 23%
Total strikes
20 of 53 · 38%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:45
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 90%Body 10%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 20%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LBrandon MorenoOct 2016SUB R10:18 ctrl7 str1 td
Significant strikes
7 of 13 · 54%
Total strikes
17 of 23 · 74%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:18
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:23
Guillotine Choke After Drop to Guard
Target
Head 86%Body 14%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 29%Clinch 0%Ground 71%
This fight on UFCStats
WBen NguyenJul 2016KO R27:02 ctrl82 str3 td
Significant strikes
82 of 113 · 73%
Total strikes
138 of 178 · 78%
Takedowns
3 of 6 · 50%
Control
7:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
7
Reversals
3
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:41
Elbows to Head From Mount
Target
Head 91%Body 9%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 4%Clinch 0%Ground 96%
This fight on UFCStats
WPaddy HolohanOct 2015SUB R22:57 ctrl59 str0 td
Significant strikes
59 of 89 · 66%
Total strikes
66 of 97 · 68%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
2:57
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
2
Ended
Submission, R2 4:09
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 86%Body 12%Legs 2%
Position
Distance 31%Clinch 2%Ground 68%
This fight on UFCStats
WNeil SeeryJul 2015U-DEC12:00 ctrl23 str6 td
Significant strikes
23 of 45 · 51%
Total strikes
36 of 58 · 62%
Takedowns
6 of 10 · 60%
Control
12:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
5
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 52%Body 48%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 39%Clinch 35%Ground 26%
This fight on UFCStats
WRichie VaculikNov 2014KO R31:06 ctrl67 str1 td
Significant strikes
67 of 143 · 47%
Total strikes
71 of 147 · 48%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
1:06
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
2
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 0:18
Kick to Head At Distance Side Kick
Target
Head 64%Body 19%Legs 16%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 1%Ground 1%
This fight on UFCStats
LChris CariasoMay 2014S-DEC7:34 ctrl42 str1 td
Significant strikes
42 of 97 · 43%
Total strikes
79 of 135 · 59%
Takedowns
1 of 10 · 10%
Control
7:34
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 48%Body 31%Legs 21%
Position
Distance 43%Clinch 43%Ground 14%
This fight on UFCStats
WAlptekin OzkilicJan 2014U-DEC1:41 ctrl92 str0 td
Significant strikes
92 of 245 · 38%
Total strikes
96 of 249 · 39%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
1:41
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 76%Body 21%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 54%Clinch 26%Ground 20%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.