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Mackenzie Dern

16-5-0
33y·5' 4"·63" reach·Orthodox
4:26
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.46
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
45%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss November 2023. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Read the research

The Odometer

Backwards

Crossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in May 2020, 72 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.

Fired again Nov 2023

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 17 recorded bouts, 851 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 74%Body 15%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 74%Clinch 10%Ground 17%
And how often each lands
Head35%
Body75%
Legs92%
Distance35%
Clinch76%
Ground84%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

11Wins5 SUB · 6 DEC
5Losses1 KO · 4 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

39%
Yoder
6%
Cooper
0%
Ribas
0%
Cifers
47%
Markos
17%
Jandiroba
83%
Nunes
29%
Rodriguez
16%
Pennington
37%
Xiaonan
53%
Hill
0%
Andrade
40%
Lemos
18%
Godinez
31%
Ribas
15%
Jandiroba
43%
Robertson

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.54100%17
R22.8480%13
R33.74106%12
R43.3695%5
R53.4096%5

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min3.47
Strikes absorbed / min3.93
Striking accuracyof everything thrown41%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed51%
Takedowns / 15 min0.93
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land18%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed37%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.1
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together7.4
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 17 bouts14.8m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

Women's divisions sit this one out for now. The baseline leans on how far striking has drifted era to era, and there isn't enough sample in the women's divisions to measure that drift. Building a baseline anyway would claim a precision we haven't earned.

The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

WGillian RobertsonAug 2026U-DEC10:48 ctrl65 str4 td
Significant strikes
65 of 168 · 39%
Total strikes
122 of 239 · 51%
Takedowns
4 of 6 · 67%
Control
10:48
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 62%Body 22%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 3%Ground 12%
This fight on UFCStats
WVirna JandirobaOct 2025U-DEC3:45 ctrl118 str2 td
Significant strikes
118 of 231 · 51%
Total strikes
249 of 372 · 67%
Takedowns
2 of 8 · 25%
Control
3:45
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 71%Body 18%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 75%Clinch 7%Ground 18%
This fight on UFCStats
WAmanda RibasJan 2025SUB R34:34 ctrl27 str1 td
Significant strikes
27 of 46 · 59%
Total strikes
82 of 107 · 77%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
4:34
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
2
Ended
Submission, R3 4:56
Armbar From Mount
Target
Head 48%Body 11%Legs 41%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 4%Ground 30%
This fight on UFCStats
WLoopy GodinezAug 2024U-DEC2:45 ctrl72 str2 td
Significant strikes
72 of 203 · 35%
Total strikes
103 of 235 · 44%
Takedowns
2 of 5 · 40%
Control
2:45
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 85%Body 7%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 8%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LAmanda LemosFeb 2024U-DEC6:00 ctrl21 str1 td
Significant strikes
21 of 54 · 39%
Total strikes
50 of 85 · 59%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
6:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
2
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 62%Clinch 0%Ground 38%
This fight on UFCStats
LJessica AndradeNov 2023KO R20:00 ctrl49 str0 td
Significant strikes
49 of 114 · 43%
Total strikes
50 of 115 · 43%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 3:15
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 78%Body 12%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 4%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WAngela HillMay 2023U-DEC13:12 ctrl126 str3 td
Significant strikes
126 of 210 · 60%
Total strikes
247 of 340 · 73%
Takedowns
3 of 9 · 33%
Control
13:12
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 83%Body 14%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 46%Clinch 15%Ground 39%
This fight on UFCStats
LYan XiaonanOct 2022M-DEC9:19 ctrl61 str2 td
Significant strikes
61 of 151 · 40%
Total strikes
224 of 339 · 66%
Takedowns
2 of 11 · 18%
Control
9:19
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
2
Ended
Majority decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 74%Body 16%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 5%Ground 10%
This fight on UFCStats
WTecia PenningtonApr 2022S-DEC2:24 ctrl50 str0 td
Significant strikes
50 of 156 · 32%
Total strikes
58 of 164 · 35%
Takedowns
0 of 5 · 0%
Control
2:24
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
3
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 84%Body 12%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 6%Ground 2%
This fight on UFCStats
LMarina RodriguezOct 2021U-DEC7:21 ctrl49 str1 td
Significant strikes
49 of 174 · 28%
Total strikes
80 of 209 · 38%
Takedowns
1 of 8 · 13%
Control
7:21
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 84%Body 8%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 73%Clinch 2%Ground 24%
This fight on UFCStats
WNina NunesApr 2021SUB R14:00 ctrl12 str1 td
Significant strikes
12 of 22 · 55%
Total strikes
31 of 44 · 70%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
4:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 4:48
Armbar From Mount
Target
Head 83%Body 0%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 0%Ground 33%
This fight on UFCStats
WVirna JandirobaDec 2020U-DEC2:34 ctrl82 str0 td
Significant strikes
82 of 174 · 47%
Total strikes
101 of 195 · 52%
Takedowns
0 of 5 · 0%
Control
2:34
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 70%Body 20%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 76%Clinch 21%Ground 4%
This fight on UFCStats
WRanda MarkosSep 2020SUB R11:45 ctrl9 str0 td
Significant strikes
9 of 13 · 69%
Total strikes
11 of 17 · 65%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:45
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
5
Reversals
1
Ended
Submission, R1 3:44
Armbar From Mount
Target
Head 67%Body 22%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 22%Clinch 0%Ground 78%
This fight on UFCStats
WHannah CifersMay 2020SUB R10:00 ctrl5 str0 td
Significant strikes
5 of 21 · 24%
Total strikes
5 of 21 · 24%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:36
Kneebar From Bottom Guard
Target
Head 40%Body 20%Legs 40%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LAmanda RibasOct 2019U-DEC0:02 ctrl20 str0 td
Significant strikes
20 of 145 · 14%
Total strikes
50 of 175 · 29%
Takedowns
0 of 6 · 0%
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 80%Body 15%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 0%Ground 5%
This fight on UFCStats
WAmanda CooperMay 2018SUB R10:09 ctrl15 str0 td
Significant strikes
15 of 32 · 47%
Total strikes
16 of 33 · 48%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:09
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:27
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 93%Body 7%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 60%Clinch 0%Ground 40%
This fight on UFCStats
WAshley YoderMar 2018S-DEC5:51 ctrl70 str1 td
Significant strikes
70 of 143 · 49%
Total strikes
76 of 149 · 51%
Takedowns
1 of 6 · 17%
Control
5:51
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 56%Body 20%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 61%Clinch 27%Ground 11%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.