Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss October 2025. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Read the researchThe Record
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Magomed Ankalaev
22-2-1 (1 NC)
34y·6' 3"·75" reach·Orthodox
4:16
Control / 15m
time on top
+1.03
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
54%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.9
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 17 recorded bouts, 744 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 54%Body 29%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 72%Clinch 10%Ground 18%
And how often each lands
Head41%
Body73%
Legs90%
Distance47%
Clinch80%
Ground71%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
13Wins7 KO · 6 DEC
2Losses1 KO · 1 SUB
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
45%
Craig
1%
Prachnio
39%
Abreu
53%
Lungiambula
0%
Cutelaba
2%
Cutelaba
40%
Krylov
12%
Oezdemir
14%
Santos
30%
Smith
45%
Blachowicz
34%
Walker
1%
Walker
10%
Rakic
23%
Pereira
0%
Pereira
37%
Guskov
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.49100%17
R23.94113%12
R33.54101%10
R42.6576%4
R53.1691%4
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min3.52
Strikes absorbed / min2.49
Striking accuracyof everything thrown52%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed55%
Takedowns / 15 min0.85
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land24%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed87%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.2
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together6.01
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 17 bouts12.4m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
46.9%
Landed at range
1,138 thrown over 17 bouts
42.3%
Expected
against these opponents
+4.7pp
Gap
above expected
80.2%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
WBogdan GuskovJul 2026KO R58:26 ctrl54 str2 td
Significant strikes
54 of 113 · 48%
Total strikes
156 of 235 · 66%
Takedowns
2 of 4 · 50%
Control
8:26
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
3
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R5 2:41
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 35%Body 48%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 81%Clinch 7%Ground 11%
LAlex PereiraOct 2025KO R10:00 ctrl4 str0 td
Significant strikes
4 of 9 · 44%
Total strikes
4 of 9 · 44%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:20
Elbows to Head From Half GuardTarget
Head 0%Body 75%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WAlex PereiraMar 2025U-DEC5:42 ctrl94 str0 td
Significant strikes
94 of 180 · 52%
Total strikes
127 of 224 · 57%
Takedowns
0 of 12 · 0%
Control
5:42
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 38%Body 32%Legs 30%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 20%Ground 0%
WAleksandar RakicOct 2024U-DEC1:31 ctrl55 str0 td
Significant strikes
55 of 114 · 48%
Total strikes
75 of 142 · 53%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:31
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 36%Body 40%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 9%Ground 0%
WJohnny WalkerJan 2024KO R20:05 ctrl39 str0 td
Significant strikes
39 of 58 · 67%
Total strikes
39 of 58 · 67%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:42
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 21%Body 15%Legs 64%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 0%Ground 3%
NCJohnny WalkerOct 2023NC R11:06 ctrl13 str1 td
Significant strikes
13 of 19 · 68%
Total strikes
16 of 23 · 70%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
1:06
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Could not continue, R1 3:13
Knee to head of grounded opponentTarget
Head 54%Body 23%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 54%Clinch 8%Ground 38%
DJan BlachowiczDec 2022S-DEC11:20 ctrl78 str2 td
Significant strikes
78 of 184 · 42%
Total strikes
191 of 312 · 61%
Takedowns
2 of 10 · 20%
Control
11:20
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 63%Body 24%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 64%Clinch 8%Ground 28%
WAnthony SmithJul 2022KO R22:26 ctrl46 str0 td
Significant strikes
46 of 79 · 58%
Total strikes
64 of 102 · 63%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
2:26
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 3:09
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 67%Body 13%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 50%Clinch 2%Ground 48%
WThiago SantosMar 2022U-DEC3:35 ctrl78 str1 td
Significant strikes
78 of 155 · 50%
Total strikes
114 of 191 · 60%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
3:35
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 42%Body 45%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 15%Ground 3%
WVolkan OezdemirOct 2021U-DEC1:45 ctrl66 str1 td
Significant strikes
66 of 108 · 61%
Total strikes
76 of 118 · 64%
Takedowns
1 of 4 · 25%
Control
1:45
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 65%Body 30%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 89%Clinch 9%Ground 2%
WNikita KrylovFeb 2021U-DEC5:59 ctrl43 str3 td
Significant strikes
43 of 92 · 47%
Total strikes
89 of 143 · 62%
Takedowns
3 of 9 · 33%
Control
5:59
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 86%Body 9%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 5%Ground 28%
WIon CutelabaOct 2020KO R10:05 ctrl21 str0 td
Significant strikes
21 of 41 · 51%
Total strikes
21 of 41 · 51%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:19
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 81%Body 10%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 5%Ground 29%
WIon CutelabaFeb 2020KO R10:00 ctrl8 str0 td
Significant strikes
8 of 12 · 67%
Total strikes
8 of 12 · 67%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:38
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 75%Body 13%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WDalcha LungiambulaNov 2019KO R35:34 ctrl44 str1 td
Significant strikes
44 of 67 · 66%
Total strikes
91 of 123 · 74%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
5:34
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 0:29
Kick to Head At Distance Front KickTarget
Head 64%Body 27%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 52%Clinch 9%Ground 39%
WKlidson AbreuFeb 2019U-DEC5:48 ctrl30 str1 td
Significant strikes
30 of 67 · 45%
Total strikes
66 of 107 · 62%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
5:48
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 73%Body 20%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 60%Clinch 20%Ground 20%
WMarcin PrachnioSep 2018KO R10:02 ctrl12 str0 td
Significant strikes
12 of 27 · 44%
Total strikes
12 of 27 · 44%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:09
Kick to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 83%Body 8%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 17%Ground 17%
LPaul CraigMar 2018SUB R36:43 ctrl59 str0 td
Significant strikes
59 of 96 · 61%
Total strikes
89 of 129 · 69%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
6:43
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
2
Ended
Submission, R3 4:59
Triangle Choke From Bottom GuardTarget
Head 61%Body 32%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 34%Clinch 14%Ground 53%