Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss November 2019. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Jul 2022
Read the researchThe Record
Back to the card
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Makwan Amirkhani
17-9-0
37y·5' 10"·72" reach·Southpaw
5:12
Control / 15m
time on top
-1.65
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
71%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.6
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 14 recorded bouts, 171 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 86%Body 10%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 64%Clinch 2%Ground 33%
And how often each lands
Head42%
Body55%
Legs88%
Distance37%
Clinch67%
Ground69%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
7Wins1 KO · 4 SUB · 2 DEC
7Losses3 KO · 1 SUB · 3 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
25%
Ogle
78%
Fullen
67%
Wilkinson
37%
Allen
2%
Knight
32%
Fishgold
30%
Burgos
24%
Henry
21%
Barboza
46%
Kirk
78%
Murphy
26%
Grundy
15%
Pearce
37%
Shore
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R11.30100%14
R21.1890%10
R31.59122%6
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min1.33
Strikes absorbed / min2.98
Striking accuracyof everything thrown44%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed46%
Takedowns / 15 min3.96
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land43%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed35%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.1
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together4.31
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 14 bouts9.2m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
36.9%
Landed at range
298 thrown over 13 bouts
41.1%
Expected
against these opponents
−4.2pp
Gap
below expected
69.3%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LJack ShoreMar 2023SUB R23:31 ctrl10 str1 td
Significant strikes
10 of 24 · 42%
Total strikes
14 of 28 · 50%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
3:31
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 4:27
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 60%Body 40%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 60%Clinch 40%Ground 0%
LJonathan PearceJul 2022KO R21:25 ctrl11 str3 td
Significant strikes
11 of 22 · 50%
Total strikes
12 of 23 · 52%
Takedowns
3 of 7 · 43%
Control
1:25
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:10
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 82%Body 0%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WMike GrundyMar 2022SUB R10:15 ctrl0 str0 td
Significant strikes
0 of 1 · 0%
Total strikes
0 of 1 · 0%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:15
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 0:57
Anaconda Choke On GroundLLerone MurphyOct 2021KO R24:05 ctrl4 str5 td
Significant strikes
4 of 6 · 67%
Total strikes
12 of 16 · 75%
Takedowns
5 of 7 · 71%
Control
4:05
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 0:14
Knee to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 75%Body 25%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 25%Clinch 0%Ground 75%
LKamuela KirkJun 2021U-DEC6:50 ctrl20 str5 td
Significant strikes
20 of 49 · 41%
Total strikes
25 of 56 · 45%
Takedowns
5 of 9 · 56%
Control
6:50
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 70%Body 20%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 75%Clinch 0%Ground 25%
LEdson BarbozaOct 2020U-DEC3:13 ctrl11 str3 td
Significant strikes
11 of 39 · 28%
Total strikes
25 of 59 · 42%
Takedowns
3 of 6 · 50%
Control
3:13
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 91%Body 9%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 0%Ground 9%
WDanny HenryJul 2020SUB R10:47 ctrl2 str1 td
Significant strikes
2 of 6 · 33%
Total strikes
2 of 6 · 33%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:47
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 3:15
Anaconda Choke On GroundTarget
Head 50%Body 50%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LShane BurgosNov 2019KO R34:19 ctrl22 str3 td
Significant strikes
22 of 48 · 46%
Total strikes
23 of 49 · 47%
Takedowns
3 of 19 · 16%
Control
4:19
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 4:32
Punch to Body At DistanceTarget
Head 95%Body 5%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 0%Ground 5%
WChris FishgoldJun 2019SUB R22:59 ctrl9 str1 td
Significant strikes
9 of 27 · 33%
Total strikes
18 of 36 · 50%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
2:59
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 4:25
Anaconda Choke On GroundTarget
Head 67%Body 11%Legs 22%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 0%Ground 33%
WJason KnightMay 2018S-DEC0:14 ctrl27 str3 td
Significant strikes
27 of 62 · 44%
Total strikes
32 of 68 · 47%
Takedowns
3 of 5 · 60%
Control
0:14
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 93%Body 4%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 0%Ground 33%
LArnold AllenMar 2017S-DEC5:35 ctrl17 str4 td
Significant strikes
17 of 46 · 37%
Total strikes
32 of 65 · 49%
Takedowns
4 of 12 · 33%
Control
5:35
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
3
Reversals
1
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 88%Body 12%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 76%Clinch 0%Ground 24%
WMike WilkinsonFeb 2016U-DEC10:03 ctrl32 str4 td
Significant strikes
32 of 50 · 64%
Total strikes
54 of 77 · 70%
Takedowns
4 of 7 · 57%
Control
10:03
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
3
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 16%Clinch 0%Ground 84%
WMasio FullenJun 2015SUB R11:19 ctrl0 str1 td
Significant strikes
0 of 0
Total strikes
0 of 0
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
1:19
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 1:41
Rear Naked ChokeWAndy OgleJan 2015KO R10:02 ctrl6 str0 td
Significant strikes
6 of 7 · 86%
Total strikes
6 of 7 · 86%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:08
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 83%Body 17%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 33%Clinch 0%Ground 67%