Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss November 2025. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
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Marco Tulio
14-3-0
32y·6' 0"·74" reach·Orthodox
1:36
Control / 15m
time on top
+3.05
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
75%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 4 recorded bouts, 245 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 55%Body 27%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 89%Clinch 4%Ground 7%
And how often each lands
Head45%
Body73%
Legs81%
Distance54%
Clinch71%
Ground62%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
4Wins3 KO · 1 DEC
2Losses1 KO · 1 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
14%
Potieria
9%
Gore
31%
Duncan
0%
Kopylov
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R17.51100%4
R28.19109%3
R32.80—1
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min6.02
Strikes absorbed / min2.97
Striking accuracyof everything thrown53%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed56%
Takedowns / 15 min1.05
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land26%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed0%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.3
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together8.99
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 4 bouts8.7m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
53.9%
Landed at range
406 thrown over 4 bouts
—
Expected
against these opponents
—
Gap
below the cutoffs
—
Coverage
from real records
It takes 5 bouts before this comparison says anything. There are 4 here, so it's only showing what they actually landed.
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LRoman KopylovMay 2026U-DEC0:00 ctrl62 str0 td
Significant strikes
62 of 160 · 39%
Total strikes
80 of 178 · 45%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 45%Body 29%Legs 26%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LChristian Leroy DuncanNov 2025KO R22:33 ctrl27 str2 td
Significant strikes
27 of 57 · 47%
Total strikes
42 of 75 · 56%
Takedowns
2 of 5 · 40%
Control
2:33
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 3:20
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 48%Body 11%Legs 41%
Position
Distance 81%Clinch 19%Ground 0%
WTresean GoreApr 2025KO R20:43 ctrl127 str0 td
Significant strikes
127 of 175 · 73%
Total strikes
140 of 195 · 72%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:43
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 3:16
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 58%Body 31%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 3%Ground 4%
WIhor PotieriaJan 2025KO R10:26 ctrl29 str0 td
Significant strikes
29 of 54 · 54%
Total strikes
34 of 62 · 55%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:26
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:04
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 69%Body 17%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 59%Clinch 3%Ground 38%