Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss October 2023. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Read the researchThe Record
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This fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStats
Mateus Mendonca
10-3-0
27y·5' 6"·71" reach·Orthodox
5:19
Control / 15m
time on top
-2.48
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
100%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in October 2023, 62 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 3 recorded bouts, 50 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 72%Body 16%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 66%Clinch 12%Ground 22%
And how often each lands
Head33%
Body62%
Legs50%
Distance30%
Clinch100%
Ground55%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
1Wins1 KO
3Losses1 KO · 2 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
15%
Basharat
26%
Maness
58%
Aguilar
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R11.09100%3
R22.00—2
R31.40—2
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min1.66
Strikes absorbed / min4.14
Striking accuracyof everything thrown40%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed30%
Takedowns / 15 min2.54
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land27%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed55%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.4
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together5.8
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 3 bouts11.6m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
30.3%
Landed at range
109 thrown over 3 bouts
—
Expected
against these opponents
—
Gap
below the cutoffs
—
Coverage
from real records
It takes 5 bouts before this comparison says anything. There are 3 here, so it's only showing what they actually landed.
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LJesus AguilarFeb 2024S-DEC8:44 ctrl18 str4 td
Significant strikes
18 of 40 · 45%
Total strikes
43 of 90 · 48%
Takedowns
4 of 8 · 50%
Control
8:44
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 83%Body 17%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 39%Clinch 11%Ground 50%
LNate ManessOct 2023KO R11:14 ctrl3 str0 td
Significant strikes
3 of 7 · 43%
Total strikes
9 of 16 · 56%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
1:14
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:40
Punches to Head From GuardTarget
Head 0%Body 67%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 33%Clinch 67%Ground 0%
LJavid BasharatJan 2023U-DEC2:19 ctrl29 str2 td
Significant strikes
29 of 88 · 33%
Total strikes
70 of 133 · 53%
Takedowns
2 of 11 · 18%
Control
2:19
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 72%Body 10%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 7%Ground 7%