Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss May 2024. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
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Mateusz Rebecki
21-5-0
33y·5' 7"·66" reach·Southpaw
4:20
Control / 15m
time on top
+1.09
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
67%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.9
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 9 recorded bouts, 570 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 72%Body 15%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 71%Clinch 5%Ground 25%
And how often each lands
Head43%
Body69%
Legs92%
Distance43%
Clinch77%
Ground82%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
6Wins2 KO · 2 SUB · 2 DEC
4Losses1 KO · 1 SUB · 2 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
56%
Fiore
26%
Radzhabov
71%
Roberts
16%
Ferreira
16%
Orolbai
9%
Duncan
34%
Klein
16%
Dawson
87%
Prepolec
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R16.66100%9
R25.2579%7
R33.8558%6
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min5.28
Strikes absorbed / min4.19
Striking accuracyof everything thrown49%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed54%
Takedowns / 15 min3.05
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land50%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed53%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.4
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together9.47
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 9 bouts11.7m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
42.5%
Landed at range
821 thrown over 8 bouts
44.5%
Expected
against these opponents
−2.0pp
Gap
below expected
69.9%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
WKyle PrepolecAug 2026KO R14:04 ctrl75 str1 td
Significant strikes
75 of 98 · 77%
Total strikes
132 of 174 · 76%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
4:04
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:41
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 95%Body 5%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 9%Clinch 0%Ground 91%
LGrant DawsonMay 2026SUB R32:22 ctrl33 str1 td
Significant strikes
33 of 64 · 52%
Total strikes
49 of 81 · 60%
Takedowns
1 of 5 · 20%
Control
2:22
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Submission, R3 4:42
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 82%Body 3%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 12%Ground 6%
LLudovit KleinOct 2025M-DEC5:03 ctrl72 str3 td
Significant strikes
72 of 159 · 45%
Total strikes
113 of 208 · 54%
Takedowns
3 of 12 · 25%
Control
5:03
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Majority decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 76%Body 15%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 63%Clinch 6%Ground 32%
LChris DuncanAug 2025U-DEC1:23 ctrl114 str2 td
Significant strikes
114 of 267 · 43%
Total strikes
123 of 278 · 44%
Takedowns
2 of 6 · 33%
Control
1:23
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 77%Body 6%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 9%Ground 0%
WMyktybek OrolbaiOct 2024S-DEC2:24 ctrl71 str3 td
Significant strikes
71 of 146 · 49%
Total strikes
93 of 174 · 53%
Takedowns
3 of 4 · 75%
Control
2:24
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 73%Body 14%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 76%Clinch 7%Ground 17%
LDiego FerreiraMay 2024KO R32:26 ctrl52 str4 td
Significant strikes
52 of 137 · 38%
Total strikes
60 of 146 · 41%
Takedowns
4 of 5 · 80%
Control
2:26
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 4:51
Punches to Head From MountTarget
Head 65%Body 21%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 0%Ground 12%
WRoosevelt RobertsNov 2023SUB R12:14 ctrl10 str2 td
Significant strikes
10 of 16 · 63%
Total strikes
28 of 38 · 74%
Takedowns
2 of 2 · 100%
Control
2:14
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 3:08
Armbar From Bottom GuardTarget
Head 70%Body 0%Legs 30%
Position
Distance 30%Clinch 0%Ground 70%
WLoik RadzhabovJun 2023KO R21:57 ctrl54 str1 td
Significant strikes
54 of 95 · 57%
Total strikes
64 of 110 · 58%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
1:57
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:36
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 44%Body 22%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WNick FioreJan 2023U-DEC8:27 ctrl89 str3 td
Significant strikes
89 of 171 · 52%
Total strikes
130 of 228 · 57%
Takedowns
3 of 4 · 75%
Control
8:27
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 60%Body 30%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 71%Clinch 4%Ground 25%