The Record

News
Back to the card

Matheus Nicolau

19-6-1
33y·5' 6"·66" reach·Orthodox
2:10
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.33
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
29%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss July 2018. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again Apr 2024

Read the research

The Odometer

Backwards

Crossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in July 2018, 55 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.

Fired again Apr 2024

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 11 recorded bouts, 408 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 52%Body 34%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 87%Clinch 1%Ground 12%
And how often each lands
Head41%
Body72%
Legs78%
Distance50%
Clinch80%
Ground69%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

7Wins1 KO · 1 SUB · 5 DEC
4Losses3 KO · 1 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

49%
Korea
5%
Moraga
29%
Smolka
0%
Ortiz
17%
Kape
14%
Elliott
5%
Dvorak
12%
Schnell
0%
Royval
0%
Perez
0%
Almabayev

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.73100%11
R24.36160%9
R32.96108%7

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min3.31
Strikes absorbed / min2.98
Striking accuracyof everything thrown51%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed65%
Takedowns / 15 min1.22
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land43%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed90%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.8
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together6.29
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 11 bouts11.2m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

49.9%
Landed at range
709 thrown over 11 bouts
37.9%
Expected
against these opponents
+12.0pp
Gap
above expected
77.9%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LAsu AlmabayevOct 2024U-DEC0:00 ctrl16 str0 td
Significant strikes
16 of 42 · 38%
Total strikes
38 of 68 · 56%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 50%Body 31%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 75%Clinch 0%Ground 25%
This fight on UFCStats
LAlex PerezApr 2024KO R20:00 ctrl22 str0 td
Significant strikes
22 of 55 · 40%
Total strikes
22 of 55 · 40%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:16
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 59%Body 18%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LBrandon RoyvalApr 2023KO R10:00 ctrl2 str0 td
Significant strikes
2 of 5 · 40%
Total strikes
2 of 5 · 40%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:09
Knee to Head At Distance
Target
Head 50%Body 0%Legs 50%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WMatt SchnellDec 2022KO R20:47 ctrl32 str1 td
Significant strikes
32 of 42 · 76%
Total strikes
40 of 50 · 80%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:47
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:44
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 72%Body 19%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 56%Clinch 0%Ground 44%
This fight on UFCStats
WDavid DvorakMar 2022U-DEC0:48 ctrl36 str0 td
Significant strikes
36 of 81 · 44%
Total strikes
46 of 94 · 49%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:48
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 58%Body 28%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 3%Ground 6%
This fight on UFCStats
WTim ElliottOct 2021U-DEC2:08 ctrl64 str1 td
Significant strikes
64 of 109 · 59%
Total strikes
128 of 176 · 73%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
2:08
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 44%Body 48%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WManel KapeMar 2021S-DEC2:31 ctrl55 str2 td
Significant strikes
55 of 102 · 54%
Total strikes
76 of 132 · 58%
Takedowns
2 of 9 · 22%
Control
2:31
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 49%Body 38%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 4%Ground 5%
This fight on UFCStats
LDustin OrtizJul 2018KO R10:00 ctrl7 str0 td
Significant strikes
7 of 16 · 44%
Total strikes
7 of 16 · 44%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:49
Kick to Head At Distance
Target
Head 29%Body 29%Legs 43%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WLouis SmolkaDec 2017U-DEC4:19 ctrl87 str3 td
Significant strikes
87 of 172 · 51%
Total strikes
107 of 196 · 55%
Takedowns
3 of 4 · 75%
Control
4:19
Knockdowns
3
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 54%Body 44%Legs 2%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 0%Ground 17%
This fight on UFCStats
WJohn MoragaJul 2016S-DEC0:43 ctrl41 str0 td
Significant strikes
41 of 85 · 48%
Total strikes
53 of 98 · 54%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:43
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 32%Body 29%Legs 39%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WBruno KoreaNov 2015SUB R36:37 ctrl46 str3 td
Significant strikes
46 of 77 · 60%
Total strikes
81 of 120 · 68%
Takedowns
3 of 4 · 75%
Control
6:37
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
3
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 3:27
Guillotine Choke From Half Guard
Target
Head 67%Body 17%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 72%Clinch 2%Ground 26%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.