Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss January 2018. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Sep 2024
Read the researchThe Record
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Matt Frevola
11-6-1
36y·5' 9"·71" reach·Orthodox
2:15
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.46
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
67%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.8
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 12 recorded bouts, 340 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 66%Body 19%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 70%Clinch 11%Ground 19%
And how often each lands
Head34%
Body50%
Legs85%
Distance34%
Clinch58%
Ground76%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
6Wins3 KO · 1 SUB · 2 DEC
6Losses4 KO · 2 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
0%
Reyes
5%
Vannata
34%
Turner
19%
Pena
0%
Tsarukyan
0%
McKinney
34%
Valdez
1%
Azaitar
3%
Dober
27%
Denis
21%
Ziam
13%
Nelson
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R14.87100%12
R22.1043%6
R32.5051%6
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min3.3
Strikes absorbed / min3.76
Striking accuracyof everything thrown39%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed56%
Takedowns / 15 min2.34
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land41%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed40%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.8
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together7.06
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 12 bouts8.4m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
33.7%
Landed at range
707 thrown over 11 bouts
42.6%
Expected
against these opponents
−9.0pp
Gap
below expected
78.0%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LKyle NelsonOct 2025U-DEC1:58 ctrl43 str2 td
Significant strikes
43 of 136 · 32%
Total strikes
60 of 155 · 39%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
1:58
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 53%Body 23%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 9%Ground 0%
LFares ZiamSep 2024KO R32:47 ctrl16 str1 td
Significant strikes
16 of 59 · 27%
Total strikes
25 of 72 · 35%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
2:47
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
1
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 2:59
Knee to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 44%Body 44%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 56%Clinch 44%Ground 0%
LBenoit Saint DenisNov 2023KO R10:25 ctrl5 str2 td
Significant strikes
5 of 9 · 56%
Total strikes
7 of 12 · 58%
Takedowns
2 of 2 · 100%
Control
0:25
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:31
Kick to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 40%Body 60%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 20%Ground 0%
WDrew DoberMay 2023KO R10:08 ctrl35 str0 td
Significant strikes
35 of 75 · 47%
Total strikes
39 of 79 · 49%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:08
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:08
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 74%Body 17%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 63%Clinch 3%Ground 34%
WOttman AzaitarNov 2022KO R10:02 ctrl11 str0 td
Significant strikes
11 of 27 · 41%
Total strikes
12 of 28 · 43%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:30
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 91%Body 9%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 64%Clinch 18%Ground 18%
WGenaro ValdezJan 2022KO R11:07 ctrl60 str0 td
Significant strikes
60 of 101 · 59%
Total strikes
71 of 114 · 62%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:07
Knockdowns
4
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:15
Punches to Head From Back ControlTarget
Head 93%Body 5%Legs 2%
Position
Distance 18%Clinch 10%Ground 72%
LTerrance McKinneyJun 2021KO R10:00 ctrl0 str0 td
Significant strikes
0 of 0
Total strikes
0 of 0
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:07
Punch to Head At DistanceLArman TsarukyanJan 2021U-DEC0:02 ctrl16 str0 td
Significant strikes
16 of 57 · 28%
Total strikes
51 of 97 · 53%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 50%Body 38%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 56%Clinch 44%Ground 0%
WLuis PenaOct 2019S-DEC2:50 ctrl48 str4 td
Significant strikes
48 of 110 · 44%
Total strikes
51 of 115 · 44%
Takedowns
4 of 7 · 57%
Control
2:50
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 56%Body 21%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 4%Ground 0%
WJalin TurnerApr 2019U-DEC5:05 ctrl31 str4 td
Significant strikes
31 of 77 · 40%
Total strikes
49 of 95 · 52%
Takedowns
4 of 13 · 31%
Control
5:05
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
2
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 58%Body 16%Legs 26%
Position
Distance 77%Clinch 0%Ground 23%
DLando VannataNov 2018M-DEC0:41 ctrl66 str2 td
Significant strikes
66 of 176 · 38%
Total strikes
66 of 177 · 37%
Takedowns
2 of 6 · 33%
Control
0:41
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
1
Ended
Majority decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 65%Body 15%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 89%Clinch 11%Ground 0%
LMarco Polo ReyesJan 2018KO R10:00 ctrl9 str0 td
Significant strikes
9 of 30 · 30%
Total strikes
9 of 30 · 30%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:00
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 56%Body 44%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 89%Clinch 11%Ground 0%