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Matt Schnell

17-11-0 (1 NC)
36y·5' 8"·70" reach·Orthodox
1:01
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.13
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
43%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss December 2016. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again Jun 2026

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 17 recorded bouts, 514 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 72%Body 13%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 8%Ground 9%
And how often each lands
Head34%
Body63%
Legs80%
Distance37%
Clinch67%
Ground75%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

7Wins3 SUB · 4 DEC
9Losses6 KO · 3 SUB

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

0%
Font
2%
Sandoval
2%
Beltran
0%
Inoue
14%
Smolka
0%
Espinosa
0%
Pantoja
0%
Nam
0%
Bontorin
40%
Royval
28%
Sumudaerji
0%
Nicolau
0%
Erceg
0%
Durden
26%
Flick
9%
Morales
0%
Costa

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.81100%17
R24.80126%9
R33.7699%5

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min4.05
Strikes absorbed / min4.18
Striking accuracyof everything thrown40%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed54%
Takedowns / 15 min0.59
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land45%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed43%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.2
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together8.23
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 17 bouts7.5m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

37.0%
Landed at range
1,131 thrown over 16 bouts
37.6%
Expected
against these opponents
−0.6pp
Gap
below expected
75.4%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LAlessandro CostaJun 2026KO R10:00 ctrl8 str0 td
Significant strikes
8 of 21 · 38%
Total strikes
8 of 21 · 38%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:28
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 63%Body 13%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LJoseph MoralesNov 2025SUB R10:15 ctrl4 str1 td
Significant strikes
4 of 11 · 36%
Total strikes
5 of 12 · 42%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:15
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Submission, R1 2:54
Guillotine Choke From Guard
Target
Head 25%Body 50%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WJimmy FlickApr 2025U-DEC3:53 ctrl35 str0 td
Significant strikes
35 of 61 · 57%
Total strikes
88 of 117 · 75%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
3:53
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
3
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 94%Body 3%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 34%Clinch 11%Ground 54%
This fight on UFCStats
LCody DurdenSep 2024SUB R20:00 ctrl40 str0 td
Significant strikes
40 of 83 · 48%
Total strikes
40 of 83 · 48%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 0:29
Guillotine Choke On Ground
Target
Head 80%Body 8%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 5%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LSteve ErcegMar 2024KO R20:00 ctrl22 str0 td
Significant strikes
22 of 78 · 28%
Total strikes
25 of 84 · 30%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 0:26
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 82%Body 5%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 5%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LMatheus NicolauDec 2022KO R20:00 ctrl20 str0 td
Significant strikes
20 of 59 · 34%
Total strikes
29 of 68 · 43%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:44
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 80%Body 15%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WSumudaerjiJul 2022SUB R22:40 ctrl47 str2 td
Significant strikes
47 of 81 · 58%
Total strikes
79 of 120 · 66%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
2:40
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
1
Ended
Submission, R2 4:24
Triangle Choke From Guard
Target
Head 77%Body 11%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 34%Clinch 19%Ground 47%
This fight on UFCStats
LBrandon RoyvalMay 2022SUB R10:54 ctrl12 str0 td
Significant strikes
12 of 33 · 36%
Total strikes
15 of 36 · 42%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:54
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:14
Guillotine Choke From Bottom Guard
Target
Head 75%Body 25%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 0%Ground 17%
This fight on UFCStats
NCRogerio BontorinMay 2021NC R30:00 ctrl65 str0 td
Significant strikes
65 of 135 · 48%
Total strikes
113 of 184 · 61%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Overturned, R3 5:00
Failed Drug Test by Bontorin Sal D'amato 30 - 27. Danny De Alejandro 30 - 27. Joshua Ferraro 29 - 28.
Target
Head 58%Body 32%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 12%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WTyson NamJan 2021S-DEC0:00 ctrl85 str0 td
Significant strikes
85 of 214 · 40%
Total strikes
85 of 214 · 40%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 81%Body 12%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LAlexandre PantojaDec 2019KO R10:00 ctrl20 str0 td
Significant strikes
20 of 52 · 38%
Total strikes
35 of 68 · 51%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:17
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 80%Body 10%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 90%Clinch 0%Ground 10%
This fight on UFCStats
WJordan EspinosaAug 2019SUB R10:00 ctrl3 str0 td
Significant strikes
3 of 12 · 25%
Total strikes
3 of 12 · 25%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 1:23
Triangle Choke From Bottom Guard
Target
Head 67%Body 0%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WLouis SmolkaMar 2019SUB R10:28 ctrl14 str1 td
Significant strikes
14 of 40 · 35%
Total strikes
16 of 42 · 38%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:28
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 3:18
Triangle Choke From Bottom Guard
Target
Head 79%Body 14%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 7%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WNaoki InoueJun 2018S-DEC0:00 ctrl71 str0 td
Significant strikes
71 of 183 · 39%
Total strikes
79 of 192 · 41%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 61%Body 7%Legs 32%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 4%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WMarco BeltranOct 2017U-DEC0:16 ctrl38 str0 td
Significant strikes
38 of 140 · 27%
Total strikes
38 of 140 · 27%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:16
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 63%Body 5%Legs 32%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 8%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LHector SandovalApr 2017KO R10:06 ctrl16 str1 td
Significant strikes
16 of 40 · 40%
Total strikes
27 of 52 · 52%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:06
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:24
Punch to Head From Guard
Target
Head 50%Body 25%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 38%Clinch 63%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LRob FontDec 2016KO R10:00 ctrl14 str0 td
Significant strikes
14 of 33 · 42%
Total strikes
25 of 44 · 57%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:47
Punch to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 64%Body 7%Legs 29%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.