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Matthew Semelsberger

11-8-0
33y·6' 1"·75" reach·Switch
2:35
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.47
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
40%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
2.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss July 2023. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again Nov 2024

Read the research

The Odometer

Backwards

Crossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in September 2021, 107 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.

Fired again Nov 2024

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 11 recorded bouts, 449 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 65%Body 17%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 8%Ground 12%
And how often each lands
Head35%
Body61%
Legs85%
Distance40%
Clinch71%
Ground56%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

5Wins2 KO · 3 DEC
6Losses2 KO · 4 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

18%
Minus
13%
Witt
0%
Williams
7%
Sano
33%
Fletcher
18%
Morono
28%
Matthews
10%
Wells
10%
Medic
21%
Parsons
0%
Radtke

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.62100%11
R23.95109%8
R33.75103%8

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min3.77
Strikes absorbed / min4.24
Striking accuracyof everything thrown42%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed54%
Takedowns / 15 min1.01
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land57%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed45%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.4
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together8.01
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 11 bouts10.8m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

40.0%
Landed at range
897 thrown over 11 bouts
Expected
against these opponents
Gap
below the cutoffs
Coverage
from real records

Too much of this record was set against opponents who had no distance history of their own yet. The expected number would mostly be the division average wearing a disguise, so it's held back.

The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LCharles RadtkeNov 2024KO R10:00 ctrl2 str0 td
Significant strikes
2 of 8 · 25%
Total strikes
2 of 8 · 25%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:51
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 50%Body 50%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LPreston ParsonsJan 2024U-DEC3:08 ctrl28 str1 td
Significant strikes
28 of 69 · 41%
Total strikes
33 of 77 · 43%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
3:08
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 64%Body 14%Legs 21%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 11%Ground 7%
This fight on UFCStats
LUros MedicJul 2023KO R31:13 ctrl52 str0 td
Significant strikes
52 of 120 · 43%
Total strikes
53 of 121 · 44%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
1:13
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 2:36
Spinning Back Elbow to Head At Distance
Target
Head 60%Body 15%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 81%Clinch 6%Ground 13%
This fight on UFCStats
LJeremiah WellsApr 2023S-DEC1:29 ctrl20 str0 td
Significant strikes
20 of 37 · 54%
Total strikes
39 of 59 · 66%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
1:29
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 85%Body 15%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 60%Clinch 20%Ground 20%
This fight on UFCStats
WJake MatthewsDec 2022U-DEC4:16 ctrl45 str3 td
Significant strikes
45 of 116 · 39%
Total strikes
54 of 129 · 42%
Takedowns
3 of 5 · 60%
Control
4:16
Knockdowns
3
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 76%Body 16%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 58%Clinch 13%Ground 29%
This fight on UFCStats
LAlex MoronoJul 2022U-DEC2:38 ctrl74 str1 td
Significant strikes
74 of 229 · 32%
Total strikes
86 of 241 · 36%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
2:38
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 43%Body 28%Legs 28%
Position
Distance 81%Clinch 12%Ground 7%
This fight on UFCStats
WAJ FletcherMar 2022U-DEC4:55 ctrl40 str1 td
Significant strikes
40 of 82 · 49%
Total strikes
54 of 97 · 56%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
4:55
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 80%Body 15%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 53%Clinch 5%Ground 43%
This fight on UFCStats
WMartin SanoSep 2021KO R10:01 ctrl3 str0 td
Significant strikes
3 of 5 · 60%
Total strikes
3 of 5 · 60%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:01
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:15
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 67%Body 33%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 0%Ground 33%
This fight on UFCStats
LKhaos WilliamsJun 2021U-DEC0:02 ctrl64 str0 td
Significant strikes
64 of 141 · 45%
Total strikes
68 of 146 · 47%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 66%Body 14%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 3%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WJason WittMar 2021KO R10:02 ctrl3 str0 td
Significant strikes
3 of 5 · 60%
Total strikes
3 of 5 · 60%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:16
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 67%Body 0%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 0%Ground 33%
This fight on UFCStats
WCarlton MinusAug 2020U-DEC2:46 ctrl118 str2 td
Significant strikes
118 of 233 · 51%
Total strikes
122 of 237 · 51%
Takedowns
2 of 2 · 100%
Control
2:46
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 67%Body 14%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 6%Ground 3%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.