The Record

News
Back to the card

Melquizael Costa

26-8-0
29y·5' 10"·71" reach·Southpaw
2:31
Control / 15m
time on top
+1.10
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
57%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.4
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss December 2023. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 10 recorded bouts, 462 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 47%Body 30%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 9%Ground 8%
And how often each lands
Head34%
Body64%
Legs82%
Distance44%
Clinch65%
Ground70%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

7Wins2 KO · 2 SUB · 3 DEC
3Losses1 KO · 1 SUB · 1 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

0%
Moises
18%
Lingo
78%
Garcia
25%
Nuerdanbieke
0%
Fili
33%
Rodriguez
3%
Erosa
3%
Charriere
11%
Ige
7%
Allen

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.98100%10
R24.52113%7
R35.05127%5
R44.601
R52.201

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min4.29
Strikes absorbed / min3.19
Striking accuracyof everything thrown47%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed50%
Takedowns / 15 min1.53
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land35%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed50%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.8
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together7.48
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 10 bouts10.8m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

44.2%
Landed at range
864 thrown over 10 bouts
42.2%
Expected
against these opponents
+2.1pp
Gap
above expected
93.3%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LArnold AllenMay 2026U-DEC1:45 ctrl100 str0 td
Significant strikes
100 of 254 · 39%
Total strikes
118 of 280 · 42%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
1:45
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 47%Body 20%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 0%Ground 3%
This fight on UFCStats
WDan IgeFeb 2026KO R10:32 ctrl19 str1 td
Significant strikes
19 of 40 · 48%
Total strikes
26 of 48 · 54%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:32
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:56
Spinning Back Kick Head
Target
Head 47%Body 37%Legs 16%
Position
Distance 68%Clinch 21%Ground 11%
This fight on UFCStats
WMorgan CharriereDec 2025KO R10:02 ctrl4 str0 td
Significant strikes
4 of 9 · 44%
Total strikes
4 of 9 · 44%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:14
Kick to Head At Distance
Target
Head 25%Body 25%Legs 50%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WJulian ErosaMay 2025U-DEC0:23 ctrl102 str2 td
Significant strikes
102 of 204 · 50%
Total strikes
128 of 236 · 54%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
0:23
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 66%Body 16%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 3%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WChristian RodriguezMar 2025U-DEC4:53 ctrl65 str1 td
Significant strikes
65 of 105 · 62%
Total strikes
159 of 208 · 76%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
4:53
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
3
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 60%Body 29%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 29%Clinch 26%Ground 45%
This fight on UFCStats
WAndre FiliFeb 2025SUB R10:00 ctrl27 str0 td
Significant strikes
27 of 56 · 48%
Total strikes
27 of 56 · 48%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 4:30
Guillotine Choke From Bottom Half Guard
Target
Head 11%Body 37%Legs 52%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 4%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WShayilan NuerdanbiekeJun 2024SUB R33:00 ctrl16 str2 td
Significant strikes
16 of 35 · 46%
Total strikes
76 of 106 · 72%
Takedowns
2 of 2 · 100%
Control
3:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
1
Ended
Submission, R3 1:50
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 50%Body 31%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 50%Clinch 31%Ground 19%
This fight on UFCStats
LSteve GarciaDec 2023KO R24:41 ctrl6 str2 td
Significant strikes
6 of 10 · 60%
Total strikes
20 of 25 · 80%
Takedowns
2 of 10 · 20%
Control
4:41
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:01
Elbows to Head From Mount
Target
Head 17%Body 33%Legs 50%
Position
Distance 33%Clinch 67%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WAustin LingoJul 2023U-DEC2:44 ctrl100 str3 td
Significant strikes
100 of 220 · 45%
Total strikes
108 of 236 · 46%
Takedowns
3 of 8 · 38%
Control
2:44
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 39%Body 48%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 6%Ground 1%
This fight on UFCStats
LThiago MoisesJan 2023SUB R20:02 ctrl23 str0 td
Significant strikes
23 of 50 · 46%
Total strikes
43 of 71 · 61%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 4:05
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 9%Body 43%Legs 48%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 9%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.