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Michelle Waterson-Gomez

18-13-0
40y·5' 3"·62" reach·Orthodox
2:44
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.83
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
50%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss September 2023. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Read the research

The Odometer

Backwards

Crossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in April 2018, 118 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.

Fired again Sep 2023

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 15 recorded bouts, 780 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 47%Body 28%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 70%Clinch 19%Ground 11%
And how often each lands
Head33%
Body67%
Legs70%
Distance39%
Clinch82%
Ground79%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

8Wins4 SUB · 4 DEC
9Losses1 KO · 2 SUB · 6 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

15%
Magana
54%
VanZant
11%
Namajunas
30%
Pennington
41%
Casey
19%
Herrig
24%
Kowalkiewicz
20%
Jedrzejczyk
0%
Esparza
16%
Hill
16%
Rodriguez
17%
Lemos
7%
Pinheiro
37%
Rodriguez
2%
Robertson

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.11100%15
R23.55114%14
R33.94127%11
R43.47112%3
R54.80155%3

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min3.42
Strikes absorbed / min4.25
Striking accuracyof everything thrown46%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed48%
Takedowns / 15 min1.39
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land33%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed69%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.6
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together7.67
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 15 bouts14.6m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

Women's divisions sit this one out for now. The baseline leans on how far striking has drifted era to era, and there isn't enough sample in the women's divisions to measure that drift. Building a baseline anyway would claim a precision we haven't earned.

The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LGillian RobertsonJun 2024U-DEC0:19 ctrl21 str1 td
Significant strikes
21 of 52 · 40%
Total strikes
41 of 75 · 55%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:19
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 90%Body 5%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 43%Clinch 14%Ground 43%
This fight on UFCStats
LMarina RodriguezSep 2023KO R22:49 ctrl13 str1 td
Significant strikes
13 of 32 · 41%
Total strikes
16 of 37 · 43%
Takedowns
1 of 6 · 17%
Control
2:49
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:42
Punches to Head From Mount
Target
Head 54%Body 38%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 31%Clinch 54%Ground 15%
This fight on UFCStats
LLuana PinheiroApr 2023S-DEC1:01 ctrl61 str1 td
Significant strikes
61 of 188 · 32%
Total strikes
70 of 199 · 35%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
1:01
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 30%Body 26%Legs 44%
Position
Distance 87%Clinch 13%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LAmanda LemosJul 2022SUB R21:08 ctrl29 str1 td
Significant strikes
29 of 56 · 52%
Total strikes
35 of 62 · 56%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
1:08
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 1:48
Guillotine Choke After Drop to Guard
Target
Head 24%Body 24%Legs 52%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 0%Ground 7%
This fight on UFCStats
LMarina RodriguezMay 2021U-DEC3:54 ctrl88 str1 td
Significant strikes
88 of 205 · 43%
Total strikes
100 of 222 · 45%
Takedowns
1 of 5 · 20%
Control
3:54
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 49%Body 28%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 84%Clinch 8%Ground 8%
This fight on UFCStats
WAngela HillSep 2020S-DEC4:03 ctrl128 str1 td
Significant strikes
128 of 324 · 40%
Total strikes
162 of 361 · 45%
Takedowns
1 of 18 · 6%
Control
4:03
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 51%Body 31%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 10%Ground 4%
This fight on UFCStats
LCarla EsparzaMay 2020S-DEC0:00 ctrl44 str0 td
Significant strikes
44 of 98 · 45%
Total strikes
44 of 98 · 45%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 34%Body 30%Legs 36%
Position
Distance 89%Clinch 11%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LJoanna JedrzejczykOct 2019U-DEC4:58 ctrl58 str1 td
Significant strikes
58 of 160 · 36%
Total strikes
71 of 174 · 41%
Takedowns
1 of 9 · 11%
Control
4:58
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 43%Body 21%Legs 36%
Position
Distance 76%Clinch 24%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WKarolina KowalkiewiczMar 2019U-DEC3:35 ctrl64 str2 td
Significant strikes
64 of 149 · 43%
Total strikes
82 of 167 · 49%
Takedowns
2 of 4 · 50%
Control
3:35
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 39%Body 27%Legs 34%
Position
Distance 64%Clinch 27%Ground 9%
This fight on UFCStats
WFelice HerrigOct 2018U-DEC2:50 ctrl76 str0 td
Significant strikes
76 of 107 · 71%
Total strikes
131 of 163 · 80%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
2:50
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 62%Body 34%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 21%Clinch 45%Ground 34%
This fight on UFCStats
WCortney CaseyApr 2018S-DEC6:05 ctrl61 str3 td
Significant strikes
61 of 84 · 73%
Total strikes
77 of 103 · 75%
Takedowns
3 of 4 · 75%
Control
6:05
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 49%Body 21%Legs 30%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 10%Ground 23%
This fight on UFCStats
LTecia PenningtonDec 2017U-DEC4:30 ctrl56 str2 td
Significant strikes
56 of 138 · 41%
Total strikes
66 of 148 · 45%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
4:30
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 52%Body 45%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 61%Clinch 34%Ground 5%
This fight on UFCStats
LRose NamajunasApr 2017SUB R20:50 ctrl22 str1 td
Significant strikes
22 of 33 · 67%
Total strikes
31 of 44 · 70%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:50
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 2:47
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 23%Body 18%Legs 59%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 9%Ground 5%
This fight on UFCStats
WPaige VanZantDec 2016SUB R11:48 ctrl12 str1 td
Significant strikes
12 of 17 · 71%
Total strikes
13 of 18 · 72%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
1:48
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 3:21
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 50%Body 25%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 17%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WAngela MaganaJul 2015SUB R31:57 ctrl47 str3 td
Significant strikes
47 of 60 · 78%
Total strikes
102 of 120 · 85%
Takedowns
3 of 3 · 100%
Control
1:57
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
4
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 2:38
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 53%Body 32%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 53%Clinch 19%Ground 28%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.