Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss January 2020. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Apr 2026
Read the researchThe Record
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Nate Landwehr
18-8-0
38y·5' 9"·72" reach·Orthodox
1:44
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.41
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
60%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 11 recorded bouts, 571 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 73%Body 14%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 76%Clinch 19%Ground 4%
And how often each lands
Head41%
Body58%
Legs75%
Distance41%
Clinch73%
Ground61%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
5Wins1 KO · 2 SUB · 2 DEC
6Losses5 KO · 1 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
20%
Burns
3%
Elkins
0%
Erosa
30%
Klein
34%
Onama
4%
Lingo
3%
Ige
2%
Emmers
5%
Choi
4%
Charriere
0%
Swanson
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R14.29100%11
R26.96162%7
R36.08142%6
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min5.55
Strikes absorbed / min5.96
Striking accuracyof everything thrown45%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed51%
Takedowns / 15 min0.73
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land41%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed71%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.7
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together11.51
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 11 bouts9.3m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
41.3%
Landed at range
1,054 thrown over 11 bouts
42.4%
Expected
against these opponents
−1.1pp
Gap
below expected
86.9%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LCub SwansonApr 2026KO R10:00 ctrl15 str0 td
Significant strikes
15 of 30 · 50%
Total strikes
15 of 30 · 50%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:06
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 60%Body 7%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LMorgan CharriereJul 2025KO R30:22 ctrl63 str0 td
Significant strikes
63 of 155 · 41%
Total strikes
65 of 158 · 41%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:22
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 0:27
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 86%Body 11%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LDooho ChoiDec 2024KO R30:42 ctrl25 str0 td
Significant strikes
25 of 67 · 37%
Total strikes
32 of 77 · 42%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:42
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 3:21
Elbows to Head From CrucifixTarget
Head 52%Body 36%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 60%Clinch 40%Ground 0%
WJamall EmmersMar 2024KO R10:05 ctrl37 str0 td
Significant strikes
37 of 76 · 49%
Total strikes
37 of 76 · 49%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:43
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 92%Body 8%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 65%Clinch 24%Ground 11%
LDan IgeJun 2023U-DEC0:26 ctrl74 str0 td
Significant strikes
74 of 195 · 38%
Total strikes
74 of 195 · 38%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
0:26
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 73%Body 18%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 74%Clinch 24%Ground 1%
WAustin LingoMar 2023SUB R20:24 ctrl64 str1 td
Significant strikes
64 of 153 · 42%
Total strikes
68 of 160 · 43%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
0:24
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 4:11
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 56%Body 14%Legs 30%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 0%Ground 5%
WDavid OnamaAug 2022M-DEC5:05 ctrl91 str3 td
Significant strikes
91 of 185 · 49%
Total strikes
133 of 253 · 53%
Takedowns
3 of 4 · 75%
Control
5:05
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
1
Ended
Majority decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 80%Body 11%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 57%Clinch 24%Ground 19%
WLudovit KleinOct 2021SUB R33:46 ctrl71 str1 td
Significant strikes
71 of 130 · 55%
Total strikes
103 of 163 · 63%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
3:46
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 2:22
Anaconda Choke On GroundTarget
Head 58%Body 25%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 63%Clinch 37%Ground 0%
LJulian ErosaFeb 2021KO R10:00 ctrl9 str0 td
Significant strikes
9 of 14 · 64%
Total strikes
9 of 14 · 64%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:56
Flying Knee HeadTarget
Head 56%Body 11%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 33%Ground 0%
WDarren ElkinsMay 2020U-DEC0:29 ctrl118 str0 td
Significant strikes
118 of 234 · 50%
Total strikes
121 of 237 · 51%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:29
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 81%Body 7%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 81%Clinch 19%Ground 0%
LHerbert BurnsJan 2020KO R10:33 ctrl4 str0 td
Significant strikes
4 of 9 · 44%
Total strikes
6 of 11 · 55%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:33
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:43
Knee to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 75%Body 25%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 75%Clinch 25%Ground 0%