Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss November 2022. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
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Nicolae Negumereanu
13-2-0
32y·6' 0"·78" reach·Orthodox
3:15
Control / 15m
time on top
-1.98
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
50%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in June 2021, 60 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Fired again Nov 2022
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 6 recorded bouts, 210 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 75%Body 10%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 74%Clinch 23%Ground 3%
And how often each lands
Head36%
Body51%
Legs86%
Distance36%
Clinch74%
Ground50%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
4Wins2 KO · 2 DEC
2Losses1 KO · 1 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
0%
Safarov
32%
Camur
26%
Villanueva
23%
Nzechukwu
47%
Potieria
0%
Ulberg
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.08100%6
R24.41143%4
R33.40110%3
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min3.58
Strikes absorbed / min5.56
Striking accuracyof everything thrown41%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed39%
Takedowns / 15 min1.02
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land28%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed62%
Sub attempts / 15 min0
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together9.14
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 6 bouts9.8m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
35.9%
Landed at range
432 thrown over 6 bouts
43.3%
Expected
against these opponents
−7.4pp
Gap
below expected
67.6%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LCarlos UlbergNov 2022KO R10:00 ctrl2 str0 td
Significant strikes
2 of 14 · 14%
Total strikes
2 of 14 · 14%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:44
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 0%Body 50%Legs 50%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WIhor PotieriaJul 2022KO R24:01 ctrl51 str2 td
Significant strikes
51 of 95 · 54%
Total strikes
72 of 122 · 59%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
4:01
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 3:33
Knees to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 86%Body 14%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 45%Clinch 49%Ground 6%
WKennedy NzechukwuMar 2022S-DEC3:28 ctrl64 str1 td
Significant strikes
64 of 160 · 40%
Total strikes
81 of 178 · 46%
Takedowns
1 of 5 · 20%
Control
3:28
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 56%Body 11%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 14%Ground 0%
WIke VillanuevaOct 2021KO R10:20 ctrl11 str0 td
Significant strikes
11 of 21 · 52%
Total strikes
11 of 21 · 52%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:20
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:18
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 73%Body 0%Legs 27%
Position
Distance 64%Clinch 9%Ground 27%
WAleksa CamurJun 2021S-DEC4:52 ctrl71 str1 td
Significant strikes
71 of 193 · 37%
Total strikes
99 of 224 · 44%
Takedowns
1 of 5 · 20%
Control
4:52
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 92%Body 3%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 14%Ground 0%
LSaparbeg SafarovMar 2019U-DEC0:00 ctrl11 str0 td
Significant strikes
11 of 27 · 41%
Total strikes
20 of 36 · 56%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 45%Body 27%Legs 27%
Position
Distance 64%Clinch 36%Ground 0%