Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss April 2025. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Read the researchThe Record
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Nicolas Dalby
24-6-1 (2 NC)
41y·5' 11"·74" reach·Orthodox
3:26
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.37
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
13%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.3
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in September 2016, 103 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Fired again Apr 2025
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 15 recorded bouts, 772 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 59%Body 24%Legs 16%
Position
Distance 62%Clinch 31%Ground 8%
And how often each lands
Head35%
Body64%
Legs76%
Distance35%
Clinch72%
Ground67%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
8Wins1 KO · 7 DEC
5Losses1 KO · 4 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
28%
Santos
25%
Till
1%
Cummings
3%
Sobotta
37%
Oliveira
15%
Ronson
10%
Rodriguez
10%
Means
29%
Silva
27%
Alves
44%
Salikhov
15%
Bonfim
26%
Fakhretdinov
21%
Brown
43%
Izagakhmaev
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.86100%15
R23.87135%14
R35.13180%12
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min3.88
Strikes absorbed / min3.51
Striking accuracyof everything thrown43%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed52%
Takedowns / 15 min0.9
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land26%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed59%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.1
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together7.39
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 15 bouts13.3m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
35.1%
Landed at range
1,360 thrown over 15 bouts
40.9%
Expected
against these opponents
−5.8pp
Gap
below expected
65.9%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
WSaygid IzagakhmaevNov 2025S-DEC6:29 ctrl26 str0 td
Significant strikes
26 of 63 · 41%
Total strikes
87 of 140 · 62%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
6:29
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 50%Body 31%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 42%Clinch 50%Ground 8%
LRandy BrownApr 2025KO R21:22 ctrl26 str0 td
Significant strikes
26 of 74 · 35%
Total strikes
40 of 90 · 44%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:22
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:39
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 46%Body 4%Legs 50%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 0%Ground 4%
LRinat FakhretdinovJun 2024S-DEC3:57 ctrl66 str0 td
Significant strikes
66 of 134 · 49%
Total strikes
123 of 195 · 63%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
3:57
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 55%Body 38%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 58%Clinch 42%Ground 0%
WGabriel BonfimNov 2023KO R21:27 ctrl53 str0 td
Significant strikes
53 of 113 · 47%
Total strikes
64 of 128 · 50%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
1:27
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:33
Knees to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 77%Body 13%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 47%Clinch 47%Ground 6%
WMuslim SalikhovJun 2023U-DEC6:36 ctrl86 str2 td
Significant strikes
86 of 140 · 61%
Total strikes
104 of 158 · 66%
Takedowns
2 of 5 · 40%
Control
6:36
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 48%Body 42%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 50%Clinch 42%Ground 8%
WWarlley AlvesJan 2023S-DEC4:02 ctrl119 str0 td
Significant strikes
119 of 248 · 48%
Total strikes
167 of 298 · 56%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
4:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 63%Body 29%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 72%Clinch 27%Ground 1%
WClaudio SilvaJul 2022U-DEC4:17 ctrl45 str1 td
Significant strikes
45 of 94 · 48%
Total strikes
61 of 114 · 54%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
4:17
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 71%Body 20%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 47%Clinch 36%Ground 18%
LTim MeansJun 2021U-DEC1:31 ctrl54 str0 td
Significant strikes
54 of 116 · 47%
Total strikes
84 of 146 · 58%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
1:31
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 69%Body 24%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 65%Clinch 35%Ground 0%
WDaniel RodriguezNov 2020U-DEC1:28 ctrl50 str0 td
Significant strikes
50 of 147 · 34%
Total strikes
58 of 155 · 37%
Takedowns
0 of 7 · 0%
Control
1:28
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 48%Body 14%Legs 38%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
NCJesse RonsonJul 2020NC R10:26 ctrl20 str0 td
Significant strikes
20 of 50 · 40%
Total strikes
20 of 53 · 38%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:26
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Overturned, R1 2:48
Rear Naked Choke Failed Drug Test by RonsonTarget
Head 50%Body 40%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 15%Ground 0%
WAlex OliveiraSep 2019U-DEC5:29 ctrl31 str1 td
Significant strikes
31 of 84 · 37%
Total strikes
64 of 122 · 52%
Takedowns
1 of 4 · 25%
Control
5:29
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 61%Body 16%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 29%Clinch 35%Ground 35%
LPeter SobottaSep 2016U-DEC0:28 ctrl14 str0 td
Significant strikes
14 of 52 · 27%
Total strikes
48 of 87 · 55%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:28
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 50%Body 29%Legs 21%
Position
Distance 64%Clinch 21%Ground 14%
LZak CummingsApr 2016U-DEC0:07 ctrl57 str0 td
Significant strikes
57 of 150 · 38%
Total strikes
69 of 163 · 42%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:07
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 51%Body 19%Legs 30%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 7%Ground 2%
DDarren TillOct 2015M-DEC3:43 ctrl84 str2 td
Significant strikes
84 of 170 · 49%
Total strikes
111 of 197 · 56%
Takedowns
2 of 4 · 50%
Control
3:43
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Majority decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 81%Body 8%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 35%Clinch 40%Ground 25%
WElizeu Zaleski dos SantosMay 2015S-DEC4:15 ctrl41 str6 td
Significant strikes
41 of 139 · 29%
Total strikes
50 of 150 · 33%
Takedowns
6 of 10 · 60%
Control
4:15
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 34%Body 29%Legs 37%
Position
Distance 66%Clinch 29%Ground 5%