The Record

News
Back to the card

Nicolle Caliari

9-4-0
29y·5' 3"·62" reach·Orthodox
5:15
Control / 15m
time on top
-2.71
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
100%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss July 2025. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Read the research

The Odometer

Backwards

Crossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in July 2025, 77 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 3 recorded bouts, 119 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 67%Body 23%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 6%Ground 9%
And how often each lands
Head33%
Body54%
Legs80%
Distance36%
Clinch70%
Ground73%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

2Wins2 SUB
2Losses1 KO · 1 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

24%
Kareckaite
9%
Judice
71%
Bannon

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.53100%3
R23.07121%3
R33.65144%3

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min2.88
Strikes absorbed / min5.59
Striking accuracyof everything thrown39%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed52%
Takedowns / 15 min3.38
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land29%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed50%
Sub attempts / 15 min1
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together8.47
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 3 bouts13.2m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

Women's divisions sit this one out for now. The baseline leans on how far striking has drifted era to era, and there isn't enough sample in the women's divisions to measure that drift. Building a baseline anyway would claim a precision we haven't earned.

The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

WShauna BannonMay 2026SUB R39:18 ctrl20 str4 td
Significant strikes
20 of 38 · 53%
Total strikes
50 of 68 · 74%
Takedowns
4 of 9 · 44%
Control
9:18
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 3:08
Arm Triangle From Side Control
Target
Head 90%Body 10%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 40%Clinch 10%Ground 50%
This fight on UFCStats
LCarli JudiceJul 2025KO R31:00 ctrl32 str1 td
Significant strikes
32 of 101 · 32%
Total strikes
35 of 104 · 34%
Takedowns
1 of 8 · 13%
Control
1:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 1:30
Knee to Body At Distance
Target
Head 81%Body 9%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 6%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LErnesta KareckaiteJan 2025S-DEC3:34 ctrl67 str3 td
Significant strikes
67 of 166 · 40%
Total strikes
86 of 194 · 44%
Takedowns
3 of 14 · 21%
Control
3:34
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 54%Body 33%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 4%Ground 1%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.