Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss February 2022. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Jun 2025
Read the researchThe Record
Back to the card
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Nikolas Motta
15-6-0 (1 NC)
33y·5' 9"·70" reach·Orthodox
0:36
Control / 15m
time on top
-1.15
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
50%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
2.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 7 recorded bouts, 231 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 76%Body 15%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 81%Clinch 6%Ground 13%
And how often each lands
Head36%
Body77%
Legs91%
Distance38%
Clinch47%
Ground74%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
4Wins2 KO · 2 DEC
3Losses3 KO
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
0%
Miller
2%
VanCamp
0%
Torres
0%
Ogden
14%
Nolan
10%
Maheshate
3%
Sadykhov
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R14.83100%7
R24.5494%4
R33.41—2
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.13
Strikes absorbed / min5.28
Striking accuracyof everything thrown38%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed52%
Takedowns / 15 min0
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land0%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed83%
Sub attempts / 15 min0
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together9.41
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 7 bouts7.3m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
38.2%
Landed at range
487 thrown over 7 bouts
46.8%
Expected
against these opponents
−8.6pp
Gap
below expected
80.0%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LNazim SadykhovJun 2025KO R20:16 ctrl66 str0 td
Significant strikes
66 of 157 · 42%
Total strikes
76 of 168 · 45%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:16
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:17
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 70%Body 24%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 18%Ground 0%
WMaheshateNov 2024U-DEC1:32 ctrl78 str0 td
Significant strikes
78 of 166 · 47%
Total strikes
87 of 183 · 48%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:32
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 78%Body 9%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 3%Ground 12%
WTom NolanJan 2024KO R10:09 ctrl21 str0 td
Significant strikes
21 of 40 · 53%
Total strikes
21 of 40 · 53%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:09
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:03
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 90%Body 10%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 38%Clinch 0%Ground 62%
NCTrey OgdenNov 2023NC R30:00 ctrl14 str0 td
Significant strikes
14 of 80 · 18%
Total strikes
16 of 82 · 20%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Overturned, R3 3:11
Arm Triangle win for Ogden overturnedTarget
Head 57%Body 36%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LManuel TorresJun 2023KO R10:00 ctrl7 str0 td
Significant strikes
7 of 14 · 50%
Total strikes
7 of 14 · 50%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:50
Elbow to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 43%Body 14%Legs 43%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WCameron VanCampSep 2022KO R10:05 ctrl24 str0 td
Significant strikes
24 of 45 · 53%
Total strikes
24 of 45 · 53%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:49
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 92%Body 4%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 63%Clinch 0%Ground 38%
LJim MillerFeb 2022KO R20:00 ctrl21 str0 td
Significant strikes
21 of 57 · 37%
Total strikes
21 of 57 · 37%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:58
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 81%Body 10%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%