Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss November 2022. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Dec 2024
Read the researchThe Record
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Ottman Azaitar
13-3-0
36y·5' 8"·71" reach·Switch
0:14
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.32
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
100%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 5 recorded bouts, 83 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 65%Body 29%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 70%Clinch 20%Ground 10%
And how often each lands
Head39%
Body63%
Legs50%
Distance39%
Clinch61%
Ground89%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
2Wins2 KO
3Losses3 KO
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
5%
Packalen
6%
Worthy
0%
Frevola
0%
Prado
0%
Johnson
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R14.61100%5
R22.86—1
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.43
Strikes absorbed / min4.11
Striking accuracyof everything thrown44%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed52%
Takedowns / 15 min0
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land0%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed100%
Sub attempts / 15 min0
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together8.54
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 5 bouts3.8m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
38.9%
Landed at range
149 thrown over 5 bouts
42.0%
Expected
against these opponents
−3.1pp
Gap
below expected
77.2%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LMichael JohnsonDec 2024KO R20:00 ctrl16 str0 td
Significant strikes
16 of 56 · 29%
Total strikes
20 of 61 · 33%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:03
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 50%Body 44%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 6%Ground 0%
LFrancisco PradoJul 2023KO R10:00 ctrl14 str0 td
Significant strikes
14 of 33 · 42%
Total strikes
16 of 36 · 44%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:05
Punches to Head From GuardTarget
Head 43%Body 50%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 14%Ground 0%
LMatt FrevolaNov 2022KO R10:00 ctrl10 str0 td
Significant strikes
10 of 22 · 45%
Total strikes
11 of 23 · 48%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:30
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 60%Body 40%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WKhama WorthySep 2020KO R10:06 ctrl16 str0 td
Significant strikes
16 of 22 · 73%
Total strikes
16 of 22 · 73%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:06
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:33
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 75%Body 25%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 19%Clinch 38%Ground 44%
WTeemu PackalenSep 2019KO R10:11 ctrl27 str0 td
Significant strikes
27 of 53 · 51%
Total strikes
27 of 53 · 51%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:11
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:33
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 81%Body 7%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 30%Ground 4%