Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss September 2022. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Nov 2023
Read the researchThe Record
Back to the card
This fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStats
Pat Sabatini
22-5-0
35y·5' 8"·70" reach·Orthodox
10:39
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.53
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
33%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.6
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 11 recorded bouts, 178 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 71%Body 17%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 39%Clinch 12%Ground 49%
And how often each lands
Head49%
Body74%
Legs80%
Distance39%
Clinch70%
Ground75%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
9Wins3 SUB · 6 DEC
2Losses2 KO
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
66%
Connelly
0%
Emmers
73%
Lutz
53%
Laramie
0%
Jackson
95%
Almeida
0%
Lopes
96%
Pearce
92%
Brito
71%
Mariscal
75%
Gomis
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R11.83100%11
R21.89103%7
R31.2769%6
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min1.69
Strikes absorbed / min1.16
Striking accuracyof everything thrown54%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed54%
Takedowns / 15 min4.27
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land41%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed50%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.3
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together2.85
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 11 bouts9.6m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
38.5%
Landed at range
179 thrown over 11 bouts
41.3%
Expected
against these opponents
−2.7pp
Gap
below expected
67.2%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
WWilliam GomisMay 2026U-DEC11:12 ctrl25 str3 td
Significant strikes
25 of 70 · 36%
Total strikes
78 of 125 · 62%
Takedowns
3 of 20 · 15%
Control
11:12
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 28%Body 24%Legs 48%
Position
Distance 72%Clinch 28%Ground 0%
WChepe MariscalNov 2025U-DEC10:37 ctrl12 str7 td
Significant strikes
12 of 29 · 41%
Total strikes
40 of 61 · 66%
Takedowns
7 of 12 · 58%
Control
10:37
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 83%Body 17%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 33%Clinch 17%Ground 50%
WJoanderson BritoApr 2025U-DEC13:47 ctrl24 str4 td
Significant strikes
24 of 31 · 77%
Total strikes
135 of 158 · 85%
Takedowns
4 of 5 · 80%
Control
13:47
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 92%Body 8%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 8%Clinch 4%Ground 88%
WJonathan PearceOct 2024SUB R13:56 ctrl3 str2 td
Significant strikes
3 of 5 · 60%
Total strikes
19 of 25 · 76%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
3:56
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 4:06
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 67%Body 33%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 33%Clinch 33%Ground 33%
LDiego LopesNov 2023KO R10:00 ctrl7 str0 td
Significant strikes
7 of 12 · 58%
Total strikes
10 of 16 · 63%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:30
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 43%Body 43%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 71%Clinch 14%Ground 14%
WLucas AlmeidaJun 2023SUB R26:27 ctrl27 str2 td
Significant strikes
27 of 35 · 77%
Total strikes
88 of 97 · 91%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
6:27
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 1:48
Arm Triangle From MountTarget
Head 93%Body 4%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 4%Clinch 7%Ground 89%
LDamon JacksonSep 2022KO R10:00 ctrl1 str0 td
Significant strikes
1 of 3 · 33%
Total strikes
1 of 3 · 33%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:09
Punches to Head From Back ControlTarget
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WTJ LaramieApr 2022U-DEC7:59 ctrl36 str6 td
Significant strikes
36 of 63 · 57%
Total strikes
124 of 162 · 77%
Takedowns
6 of 10 · 60%
Control
7:59
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 81%Body 14%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 36%Clinch 3%Ground 61%
WTucker LutzNov 2021U-DEC10:55 ctrl16 str5 td
Significant strikes
16 of 24 · 67%
Total strikes
111 of 132 · 84%
Takedowns
5 of 11 · 45%
Control
10:55
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
3
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 56%Body 25%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 75%Clinch 13%Ground 13%
WJamall EmmersAug 2021SUB R10:00 ctrl1 str0 td
Significant strikes
1 of 9 · 11%
Total strikes
1 of 9 · 11%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 1:53
Heel Hook On GroundTarget
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WTristan ConnellyApr 2021U-DEC9:58 ctrl26 str1 td
Significant strikes
26 of 45 · 58%
Total strikes
73 of 98 · 74%
Takedowns
1 of 5 · 20%
Control
9:58
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 69%Body 27%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 42%Clinch 15%Ground 42%