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Paul Craig

17-10-1 (1 NC)
38y·6' 3"·76" reach·Orthodox
2:02
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.54
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
100%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss March 2017. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again Sep 2025

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 21 recorded bouts, 421 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 50%Body 32%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 14%Ground 19%
And how often each lands
Head33%
Body66%
Legs84%
Distance39%
Clinch71%
Ground68%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

9Wins3 KO · 6 SUB
10Losses6 KO · 2 SUB · 2 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

31%
Silva
2%
Pedro
0%
Jr.
12%
Ankalaev
29%
Crute
11%
Nzechukwu
6%
Menifield
64%
Moreira
8%
Rua
0%
Antigulov
44%
Rua
3%
Hill
1%
Krylov
1%
Oezdemir
0%
Walker
30%
Muniz
5%
Allen
7%
Borralho
0%
Nickal
11%
Bellato
15%
Bukauskas

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.48100%21
R23.06123%11
R31.6868%7

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min2.5
Strikes absorbed / min3.04
Striking accuracyof everything thrown45%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed43%
Takedowns / 15 min1.43
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land18%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed35%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.3
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together5.54
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 21 bouts8.0m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

38.9%
Landed at range
728 thrown over 20 bouts
Expected
against these opponents
Gap
below the cutoffs
Coverage
from real records

Too much of this record was set against opponents who had no distance history of their own yet. The expected number would mostly be the division average wearing a disguise, so it's held back.

The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LModestas BukauskasSep 2025KO R10:45 ctrl6 str0 td
Significant strikes
6 of 14 · 43%
Total strikes
30 of 39 · 77%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:45
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 5:00
Elbow to Head From Guard
Target
Head 0%Body 33%Legs 67%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 17%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
NCRodolfo BellatoJun 2025NC R10:34 ctrl17 str0 td
Significant strikes
17 of 27 · 63%
Total strikes
40 of 52 · 77%
Takedowns
0 of 6 · 0%
Control
0:34
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Could not continue, R1 4:59
Illegal Upkick by Craig
Target
Head 41%Body 59%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 12%Ground 6%
This fight on UFCStats
LBo NickalNov 2024U-DEC0:00 ctrl47 str0 td
Significant strikes
47 of 129 · 36%
Total strikes
48 of 130 · 37%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 45%Body 30%Legs 26%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LCaio BorralhoMay 2024KO R20:30 ctrl22 str0 td
Significant strikes
22 of 48 · 46%
Total strikes
22 of 50 · 44%
Takedowns
0 of 6 · 0%
Control
0:30
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:10
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 18%Body 55%Legs 27%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LBrendan AllenNov 2023SUB R30:34 ctrl6 str0 td
Significant strikes
6 of 14 · 43%
Total strikes
13 of 21 · 62%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:34
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 0:38
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 50%Body 17%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WAndre MunizJul 2023KO R22:56 ctrl40 str2 td
Significant strikes
40 of 82 · 49%
Total strikes
54 of 101 · 53%
Takedowns
2 of 2 · 100%
Control
2:56
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:40
Elbows to Head From Mount
Target
Head 78%Body 20%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 25%Clinch 0%Ground 75%
This fight on UFCStats
LJohnny WalkerJan 2023KO R10:00 ctrl3 str0 td
Significant strikes
3 of 8 · 38%
Total strikes
3 of 8 · 38%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:16
Punches to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 0%Body 33%Legs 67%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LVolkan OezdemirJul 2022U-DEC0:07 ctrl33 str0 td
Significant strikes
33 of 126 · 26%
Total strikes
41 of 136 · 30%
Takedowns
0 of 15 · 0%
Control
0:07
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 55%Body 30%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 3%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WNikita KrylovMar 2022SUB R10:02 ctrl2 str1 td
Significant strikes
2 of 3 · 67%
Total strikes
11 of 12 · 92%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 3:57
Triangle Choke From Bottom Guard
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 0%Clinch 0%Ground 100%
This fight on UFCStats
WJamahal HillJun 2021KO R10:03 ctrl23 str0 td
Significant strikes
23 of 25 · 92%
Total strikes
43 of 47 · 91%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:03
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
3
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:59
Punches to Head From Bottom Guard
Target
Head 78%Body 17%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 26%Clinch 0%Ground 74%
This fight on UFCStats
WMauricio RuaNov 2020KO R23:46 ctrl29 str4 td
Significant strikes
29 of 57 · 51%
Total strikes
54 of 88 · 61%
Takedowns
4 of 8 · 50%
Control
3:46
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 3:36
Punches to Head From Back Control
Target
Head 59%Body 14%Legs 28%
Position
Distance 55%Clinch 14%Ground 31%
This fight on UFCStats
WGadzhimurad AntigulovJul 2020SUB R10:00 ctrl2 str0 td
Significant strikes
2 of 5 · 40%
Total strikes
4 of 7 · 57%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:06
Triangle Choke From Bottom Guard
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
DMauricio RuaNov 2019S-DEC1:16 ctrl51 str1 td
Significant strikes
51 of 99 · 52%
Total strikes
106 of 160 · 66%
Takedowns
1 of 4 · 25%
Control
1:16
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 59%Body 27%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 76%Clinch 18%Ground 6%
This fight on UFCStats
WVinicius MoreiraSep 2019SUB R12:08 ctrl18 str1 td
Significant strikes
18 of 27 · 67%
Total strikes
33 of 43 · 77%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
2:08
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 3:19
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 89%Body 11%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 6%Clinch 33%Ground 61%
This fight on UFCStats
LAlonzo MenifieldJun 2019KO R10:12 ctrl7 str0 td
Significant strikes
7 of 13 · 54%
Total strikes
21 of 28 · 75%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:12
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:19
Punch to Head On Ground
Target
Head 43%Body 57%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 57%Clinch 43%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WKennedy NzechukwuMar 2019SUB R31:37 ctrl25 str1 td
Significant strikes
25 of 77 · 32%
Total strikes
31 of 83 · 37%
Takedowns
1 of 16 · 6%
Control
1:37
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
1
Ended
Submission, R3 4:20
Triangle Choke From Bottom Guard
Target
Head 24%Body 52%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 84%Clinch 16%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LJimmy CruteDec 2018SUB R34:18 ctrl12 str3 td
Significant strikes
12 of 22 · 55%
Total strikes
45 of 57 · 79%
Takedowns
3 of 7 · 43%
Control
4:18
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Submission, R3 4:51
Kimura From Half Guard
Target
Head 58%Body 42%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 8%Ground 25%
This fight on UFCStats
WMagomed AnkalaevMar 2018SUB R31:47 ctrl18 str2 td
Significant strikes
18 of 50 · 36%
Total strikes
34 of 70 · 49%
Takedowns
2 of 7 · 29%
Control
1:47
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 4:59
Triangle Choke From Bottom Guard
Target
Head 11%Body 56%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 33%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LKhalil Rountree Jr.Jul 2017KO R10:00 ctrl17 str0 td
Significant strikes
17 of 29 · 59%
Total strikes
17 of 29 · 59%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:56
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 6%Body 18%Legs 76%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LTyson PedroMar 2017KO R10:06 ctrl12 str0 td
Significant strikes
12 of 24 · 50%
Total strikes
29 of 47 · 62%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
0:06
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:10
Elbows to Head From Crucifix
Target
Head 17%Body 58%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 33%Clinch 67%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WHenrique da SilvaDec 2016SUB R22:08 ctrl31 str1 td
Significant strikes
31 of 49 · 63%
Total strikes
57 of 75 · 76%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
2:08
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
3
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 1:59
Armbar From Bottom Guard
Target
Head 68%Body 29%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 45%Clinch 39%Ground 16%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.