Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss October 2024. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Read the researchThe Record
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Rafa Garcia
“Gifted”
19-4-0
32y·5' 7"·70" reach·Orthodox
3:16
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.14
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
29%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in July 2021, 60 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Fired again Oct 2024
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 11 recorded bouts, 637 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 79%Body 13%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 10%Ground 5%
And how often each lands
Head40%
Body71%
Legs86%
Distance41%
Clinch80%
Ground61%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
7Wins1 KO · 1 SUB · 5 DEC
4Losses1 KO · 3 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
2%
Haqparast
43%
Gruetzemacher
37%
Levy
47%
Ronson
19%
Klose
41%
Maheshate
2%
Guida
0%
Dawson
15%
Pichel
16%
Gordon
12%
Hernandez
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.69100%11
R24.31117%11
R34.99135%9
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.28
Strikes absorbed / min4.42
Striking accuracyof everything thrown44%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed61%
Takedowns / 15 min3.22
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land45%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed77%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.4
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together8.7
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 11 bouts13.5m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
41.5%
Landed at range
1,307 thrown over 11 bouts
36.1%
Expected
against these opponents
+5.4pp
Gap
above expected
84.3%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
WAlexander HernandezApr 2026U-DEC1:50 ctrl59 str4 td
Significant strikes
59 of 169 · 35%
Total strikes
79 of 194 · 41%
Takedowns
4 of 7 · 57%
Control
1:50
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 88%Body 2%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 3%Ground 0%
WJared GordonSep 2025KO R32:01 ctrl91 str2 td
Significant strikes
91 of 162 · 56%
Total strikes
107 of 179 · 60%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
2:01
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
1
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 2:27
Elbows to Head From Side ControlTarget
Head 81%Body 8%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 77%Clinch 11%Ground 12%
WVinc PichelMar 2025U-DEC2:15 ctrl64 str2 td
Significant strikes
64 of 120 · 53%
Total strikes
76 of 136 · 56%
Takedowns
2 of 6 · 33%
Control
2:15
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 77%Body 19%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 6%Ground 2%
LGrant DawsonOct 2024KO R20:00 ctrl5 str0 td
Significant strikes
5 of 12 · 42%
Total strikes
29 of 38 · 76%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:42
Punches to Head From Back ControlTarget
Head 80%Body 20%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 20%Ground 0%
WClay GuidaApr 2023U-DEC0:20 ctrl141 str0 td
Significant strikes
141 of 287 · 49%
Total strikes
143 of 289 · 49%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:20
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 92%Body 4%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%
WMaheshateDec 2022U-DEC6:10 ctrl49 str6 td
Significant strikes
49 of 98 · 50%
Total strikes
79 of 138 · 57%
Takedowns
6 of 11 · 55%
Control
6:10
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 59%Body 22%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 57%Clinch 22%Ground 20%
LDrakkar KloseJul 2022U-DEC2:54 ctrl34 str3 td
Significant strikes
34 of 57 · 60%
Total strikes
83 of 111 · 75%
Takedowns
3 of 11 · 27%
Control
2:54
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 68%Body 24%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 68%Clinch 32%Ground 0%
WJesse RonsonApr 2022SUB R24:37 ctrl35 str3 td
Significant strikes
35 of 80 · 44%
Total strikes
73 of 126 · 58%
Takedowns
3 of 4 · 75%
Control
4:37
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 4:50
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 89%Body 9%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 74%Clinch 3%Ground 23%
WNatan LevyNov 2021U-DEC5:37 ctrl35 str7 td
Significant strikes
35 of 91 · 38%
Total strikes
55 of 117 · 47%
Takedowns
7 of 12 · 58%
Control
5:37
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 60%Body 29%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 89%Clinch 9%Ground 3%
LChris GruetzemacherJul 2021U-DEC6:26 ctrl72 str5 td
Significant strikes
72 of 146 · 49%
Total strikes
90 of 166 · 54%
Takedowns
5 of 12 · 42%
Control
6:26
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 81%Body 10%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 81%Clinch 15%Ground 4%
LNasrat HaqparastMar 2021U-DEC0:21 ctrl52 str0 td
Significant strikes
52 of 217 · 24%
Total strikes
54 of 219 · 25%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
0:21
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 62%Body 29%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 8%Ground 0%