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Randy Costa

6-4-0
32y·5' 9"·73" reach·Switch
1:50
Control / 15m
time on top
-1.05
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
100%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.7
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss July 2021. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again Dec 2021

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 6 recorded bouts, 174 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 82%Body 16%Legs 2%
Position
Distance 89%Clinch 8%Ground 3%
And how often each lands
Head42%
Body77%
Legs100%
Distance44%
Clinch88%
Ground56%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

2Wins2 KO
4Losses2 KO · 2 SUB

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

10%
Davis
6%
Salmon
5%
Newson
0%
Yanez
27%
Kelley
0%
Cannetti

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R17.11100%6
R25.1372%3

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min6.53
Strikes absorbed / min7.58
Striking accuracyof everything thrown46%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed58%
Takedowns / 15 min0
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land0%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed50%
Sub attempts / 15 min0
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together14.11
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 6 bouts4.4m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

44.2%
Landed at range
351 thrown over 6 bouts
Expected
against these opponents
Gap
below the cutoffs
Coverage
from real records

Too much of this record was set against opponents who had no distance history of their own yet. The expected number would mostly be the division average wearing a disguise, so it's held back.

The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LGuido CannettiOct 2022SUB R10:00 ctrl2 str0 td
Significant strikes
2 of 7 · 29%
Total strikes
2 of 7 · 29%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 1:04
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 0%Body 100%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LTony KelleyDec 2021KO R22:29 ctrl31 str0 td
Significant strikes
31 of 65 · 48%
Total strikes
32 of 66 · 48%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
2:29
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:15
Elbows to Head From Half Guard
Target
Head 65%Body 35%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 61%Clinch 39%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LAdrian YanezJul 2021KO R20:00 ctrl69 str0 td
Significant strikes
69 of 153 · 45%
Total strikes
69 of 153 · 45%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:11
Punches to Head On Ground
Target
Head 88%Body 7%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WJourney NewsonSep 2020KO R10:02 ctrl4 str0 td
Significant strikes
4 of 6 · 67%
Total strikes
4 of 6 · 67%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:41
Kick to Head At Distance
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 50%Clinch 0%Ground 50%
This fight on UFCStats
WBoston SalmonOct 2019KO R10:08 ctrl22 str0 td
Significant strikes
22 of 44 · 50%
Total strikes
23 of 45 · 51%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:08
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:15
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 95%Body 5%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 0%Ground 14%
This fight on UFCStats
LBrandon DavisApr 2019SUB R20:37 ctrl46 str0 td
Significant strikes
46 of 101 · 46%
Total strikes
49 of 104 · 47%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:37
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 1:12
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 80%Body 17%Legs 2%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 4%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.