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Raulian Paiva

21-5-0
30y·5' 8"·69" reach·Orthodox
1:32
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.87
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
25%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.3
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss December 2021. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Read the research

The Odometer

Backwards

Crossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in August 2019, 33 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.

Fired again Dec 2021

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 7 recorded bouts, 301 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 58%Body 27%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 6%Ground 3%
And how often each lands
Head31%
Body64%
Legs80%
Distance39%
Clinch69%
Ground53%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

4Wins1 KO · 3 DEC
4Losses2 KO · 2 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

11%
Kara-France
0%
Bontorin
18%
Rosa
5%
Zhumagulov
24%
Phillips
0%
O'Malley
1%
Morozov

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.74100%7
R24.33116%5
R33.6096%4

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min4.14
Strikes absorbed / min5.01
Striking accuracyof everything thrown42%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed48%
Takedowns / 15 min0.65
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land23%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed77%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.2
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together9.15
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 7 bouts11.1m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

38.6%
Landed at range
709 thrown over 7 bouts
Expected
against these opponents
Gap
below the cutoffs
Coverage
from real records

Too much of this record was set against opponents who had no distance history of their own yet. The expected number would mostly be the division average wearing a disguise, so it's held back.

The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LSergey MorozovJun 2022U-DEC0:13 ctrl63 str1 td
Significant strikes
63 of 142 · 44%
Total strikes
63 of 142 · 44%
Takedowns
1 of 4 · 25%
Control
0:13
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 81%Body 16%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LSean O'MalleyDec 2021KO R10:00 ctrl11 str0 td
Significant strikes
11 of 47 · 23%
Total strikes
11 of 47 · 23%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:42
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 18%Body 27%Legs 55%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WKyler PhillipsJul 2021M-DEC3:32 ctrl51 str2 td
Significant strikes
51 of 117 · 44%
Total strikes
72 of 147 · 49%
Takedowns
2 of 6 · 33%
Control
3:32
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Majority decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 73%Body 27%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 14%Ground 6%
This fight on UFCStats
WZhalgas ZhumagulovJul 2020U-DEC0:43 ctrl52 str0 td
Significant strikes
52 of 121 · 43%
Total strikes
56 of 125 · 45%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:43
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 27%Body 42%Legs 31%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WMark De La RosaFeb 2020KO R21:47 ctrl54 str0 td
Significant strikes
54 of 126 · 43%
Total strikes
67 of 139 · 48%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:47
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:42
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 61%Body 19%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 15%Ground 2%
This fight on UFCStats
LRogerio BontorinAug 2019DOC R10:00 ctrl3 str0 td
Significant strikes
3 of 15 · 20%
Total strikes
7 of 19 · 37%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Doctor's stoppage, R1 2:56
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LKai Kara-FranceFeb 2019S-DEC1:39 ctrl67 str0 td
Significant strikes
67 of 184 · 36%
Total strikes
71 of 188 · 38%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
1:39
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 54%Body 31%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 1%Ground 7%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.