Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss April 2023. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Oct 2023
Read the researchThe Record
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Ricky Glenn
22-9-2
37y·6' 0"·70" reach·Southpaw
2:50
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.51
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
25%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.6
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in February 2017, 132 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Fired again Oct 2023
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 11 recorded bouts, 473 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 62%Body 25%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 58%Clinch 16%Ground 26%
And how often each lands
Head35%
Body61%
Legs71%
Distance33%
Clinch70%
Ground70%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
4Wins1 KO · 3 DEC
6Losses2 KO · 4 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
0%
Dunham
30%
Nover
52%
Tucker
14%
Jury
4%
Bermudez
3%
Aguilar
22%
Silva
30%
Dawson
0%
Giagos
0%
Dober
24%
Kenan
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.54100%11
R23.20126%8
R35.78227%8
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min3.79
Strikes absorbed / min4.3
Striking accuracyof everything thrown42%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed51%
Takedowns / 15 min0.72
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land13%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed69%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.4
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together8.09
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 11 bouts11.3m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
33.3%
Landed at range
819 thrown over 11 bouts
35.5%
Expected
against these opponents
−2.1pp
Gap
below expected
69.4%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LSong KenanAug 2024U-DEC3:32 ctrl40 str2 td
Significant strikes
40 of 99 · 40%
Total strikes
67 of 127 · 53%
Takedowns
2 of 15 · 13%
Control
3:32
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 38%Body 28%Legs 35%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 18%Ground 0%
LDrew DoberOct 2023KO R10:00 ctrl5 str0 td
Significant strikes
5 of 22 · 23%
Total strikes
5 of 22 · 23%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:36
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 40%Body 60%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LChristos GiagosApr 2023KO R10:00 ctrl2 str0 td
Significant strikes
2 of 11 · 18%
Total strikes
2 of 11 · 18%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:35
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 50%Body 0%Legs 50%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
DGrant DawsonOct 2021M-DEC4:30 ctrl28 str0 td
Significant strikes
28 of 41 · 68%
Total strikes
88 of 104 · 85%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
4:30
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Majority decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 68%Body 25%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 29%Clinch 4%Ground 68%
WJoaquim SilvaJun 2021KO R10:08 ctrl10 str0 td
Significant strikes
10 of 17 · 59%
Total strikes
14 of 22 · 64%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:08
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:37
Punches to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 90%Body 0%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 20%Clinch 20%Ground 60%
LKevin AguilarNov 2018U-DEC0:29 ctrl74 str0 td
Significant strikes
74 of 187 · 40%
Total strikes
77 of 190 · 41%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
0:29
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 68%Body 15%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 15%Ground 0%
WDennis BermudezJul 2018S-DEC0:34 ctrl48 str0 td
Significant strikes
48 of 137 · 35%
Total strikes
59 of 151 · 39%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:34
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 67%Body 27%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 4%Ground 10%
LMyles JuryDec 2017U-DEC2:06 ctrl14 str0 td
Significant strikes
14 of 83 · 17%
Total strikes
29 of 102 · 28%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
2:06
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 43%Body 29%Legs 29%
Position
Distance 71%Clinch 14%Ground 14%
WGavin TuckerSep 2017U-DEC7:45 ctrl142 str4 td
Significant strikes
142 of 237 · 60%
Total strikes
184 of 289 · 64%
Takedowns
4 of 7 · 57%
Control
7:45
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 68%Body 28%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 22%Clinch 16%Ground 62%
WPhillipe NoverFeb 2017S-DEC4:34 ctrl52 str0 td
Significant strikes
52 of 115 · 45%
Total strikes
60 of 123 · 49%
Takedowns
0 of 11 · 0%
Control
4:34
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 37%Body 38%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 58%Clinch 42%Ground 0%
LEvan DunhamSep 2016U-DEC0:00 ctrl58 str0 td
Significant strikes
58 of 156 · 37%
Total strikes
63 of 161 · 39%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 74%Body 17%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 10%Ground 7%