Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss July 2019. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Apr 2023
Read the researchThe Record
Back to the card
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Ricky Simon
22-7-1
34y·5' 6"·69" reach·Orthodox
4:21
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.87
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
45%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.8
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in February 2019, 69 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Fired again Apr 2023
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 17 recorded bouts, 651 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 70%Body 16%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 8%Ground 11%
And how often each lands
Head35%
Body73%
Legs90%
Distance38%
Clinch77%
Ground73%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
11Wins2 KO · 3 SUB · 6 DEC
6Losses2 KO · 4 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
18%
Dvalishvili
37%
Jackson
25%
Yahya
0%
Faber
22%
Font
36%
Borg
78%
Pirrello
55%
Kelleher
56%
Assuncao
48%
Shore
4%
Yadong
20%
Bautista
3%
Oliveira
32%
Basharat
61%
Smotherman
9%
Barcelos
14%
Yanez
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.74100%17
R23.33122%15
R33.02110%12
R43.00—1
R54.17—1
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min3.03
Strikes absorbed / min3.9
Striking accuracyof everything thrown42%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed61%
Takedowns / 15 min4.49
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land41%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed76%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.3
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together6.93
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 17 bouts12.7m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
37.7%
Landed at range
1,383 thrown over 17 bouts
38.6%
Expected
against these opponents
−0.8pp
Gap
below expected
81.5%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
DAdrian YanezMar 2026M-DEC2:06 ctrl44 str2 td
Significant strikes
44 of 139 · 32%
Total strikes
52 of 149 · 35%
Takedowns
2 of 5 · 40%
Control
2:06
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Majority decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 75%Body 16%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 5%Ground 9%
LRaoni BarcelosNov 2025U-DEC1:25 ctrl67 str0 td
Significant strikes
67 of 181 · 37%
Total strikes
77 of 191 · 40%
Takedowns
0 of 6 · 0%
Control
1:25
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 85%Body 13%Legs 1%
Position
Distance 87%Clinch 4%Ground 9%
WCameron SmothermanJun 2025U-DEC9:13 ctrl34 str3 td
Significant strikes
34 of 74 · 46%
Total strikes
50 of 94 · 53%
Takedowns
3 of 10 · 30%
Control
9:13
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 65%Body 12%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 12%Ground 6%
WJavid BasharatFeb 2025KO R11:16 ctrl11 str1 td
Significant strikes
11 of 21 · 52%
Total strikes
18 of 29 · 62%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
1:16
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:58
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 82%Body 9%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 9%Ground 9%
LVinicius OliveiraJun 2024U-DEC0:31 ctrl42 str2 td
Significant strikes
42 of 96 · 44%
Total strikes
44 of 98 · 45%
Takedowns
2 of 11 · 18%
Control
0:31
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 62%Body 29%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 5%Ground 0%
LMario BautistaJan 2024U-DEC3:00 ctrl45 str2 td
Significant strikes
45 of 108 · 42%
Total strikes
52 of 115 · 45%
Takedowns
2 of 13 · 15%
Control
3:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 73%Body 9%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%
LSong YadongApr 2023KO R50:51 ctrl60 str2 td
Significant strikes
60 of 139 · 43%
Total strikes
64 of 144 · 44%
Takedowns
2 of 9 · 22%
Control
0:51
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R5 1:10
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 80%Body 15%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 0%Ground 5%
WJack ShoreJul 2022SUB R24:06 ctrl25 str2 td
Significant strikes
25 of 38 · 66%
Total strikes
46 of 59 · 78%
Takedowns
2 of 8 · 25%
Control
4:06
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 3:28
Arm Triangle From MountTarget
Head 52%Body 8%Legs 40%
Position
Distance 72%Clinch 16%Ground 12%
WRaphael AssuncaoDec 2021KO R24:02 ctrl18 str2 td
Significant strikes
18 of 30 · 60%
Total strikes
27 of 41 · 66%
Takedowns
2 of 4 · 50%
Control
4:02
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:14
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 72%Body 22%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 56%Clinch 0%Ground 44%
WBrian KelleherFeb 2021U-DEC8:14 ctrl45 str6 td
Significant strikes
45 of 98 · 46%
Total strikes
72 of 136 · 53%
Takedowns
6 of 9 · 67%
Control
8:14
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 56%Body 7%Legs 38%
Position
Distance 64%Clinch 13%Ground 22%
WGaetano PirrelloJan 2021SUB R26:59 ctrl17 str7 td
Significant strikes
17 of 32 · 53%
Total strikes
50 of 69 · 72%
Takedowns
7 of 10 · 70%
Control
6:59
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 4:00
Arm Triangle From MountTarget
Head 82%Body 18%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 18%Clinch 24%Ground 59%
WRay BorgMay 2020S-DEC5:23 ctrl67 str7 td
Significant strikes
67 of 144 · 47%
Total strikes
93 of 170 · 55%
Takedowns
7 of 11 · 64%
Control
5:23
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 66%Body 19%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 81%Clinch 7%Ground 12%
LRob FontDec 2019U-DEC3:17 ctrl59 str6 td
Significant strikes
59 of 154 · 38%
Total strikes
65 of 161 · 40%
Takedowns
6 of 16 · 38%
Control
3:17
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 76%Body 17%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 78%Clinch 19%Ground 3%
LUrijah FaberJul 2019KO R10:00 ctrl4 str0 td
Significant strikes
4 of 8 · 50%
Total strikes
4 of 8 · 50%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:46
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 50%Body 0%Legs 50%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WRani YahyaFeb 2019U-DEC3:49 ctrl54 str4 td
Significant strikes
54 of 137 · 39%
Total strikes
66 of 150 · 44%
Takedowns
4 of 5 · 80%
Control
3:49
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 74%Body 17%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 70%Clinch 0%Ground 30%
WMontel JacksonAug 2018U-DEC5:35 ctrl25 str7 td
Significant strikes
25 of 53 · 47%
Total strikes
44 of 75 · 59%
Takedowns
7 of 20 · 35%
Control
5:35
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 28%Body 40%Legs 32%
Position
Distance 72%Clinch 28%Ground 0%
WMerab DvalishviliApr 2018SUB R32:45 ctrl34 str2 td
Significant strikes
34 of 103 · 33%
Total strikes
38 of 108 · 35%
Takedowns
2 of 7 · 29%
Control
2:45
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
1
Ended
Submission, R3 5:00
Guillotine Choke From Mount Technical SubmissionTarget
Head 74%Body 18%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 15%Ground 3%