Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss January 2023. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Mar 2025
Read the researchThe Record
Back to the card
This fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStats
Saimon Oliveira
18-7-0
35y·5' 4"·72" reach·Orthodox
1:47
Control / 15m
time on top
-1.25
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
0%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 4 recorded bouts, 86 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 52%Body 21%Legs 27%
Position
Distance 72%Clinch 15%Ground 13%
And how often each lands
Head33%
Body58%
Legs77%
Distance38%
Clinch65%
Ground79%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
1Wins1 DEC
4Losses2 KO · 1 SUB · 1 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
2%
Gravely
31%
Marcos
0%
Martinez
20%
Lacerda
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R11.53100%4
R23.84251%3
R32.60—1
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min2.62
Strikes absorbed / min3.87
Striking accuracyof everything thrown42%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed45%
Takedowns / 15 min1.18
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land28%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed36%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.2
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together6.49
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 4 bouts9.0m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
37.6%
Landed at range
165 thrown over 4 bouts
—
Expected
against these opponents
—
Gap
below the cutoffs
—
Coverage
from real records
It takes 5 bouts before this comparison says anything. There are 4 here, so it's only showing what they actually landed.
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LLuan LacerdaOct 2025SUB R21:45 ctrl21 str1 td
Significant strikes
21 of 34 · 62%
Total strikes
33 of 52 · 63%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
1:45
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
2
Ended
Submission, R2 3:55
Armbar From Bottom GuardTarget
Head 67%Body 14%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 38%Clinch 10%Ground 52%
LDavid MartinezMar 2025KO R10:00 ctrl7 str0 td
Significant strikes
7 of 24 · 29%
Total strikes
7 of 24 · 29%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:38
Knee to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 43%Body 43%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LDaniel MarcosJan 2023KO R22:15 ctrl23 str0 td
Significant strikes
23 of 70 · 33%
Total strikes
25 of 73 · 34%
Takedowns
0 of 5 · 0%
Control
2:15
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:18
Knees to Body At DistanceTarget
Head 30%Body 13%Legs 57%
Position
Distance 87%Clinch 13%Ground 0%
LTony GravelyJan 2022U-DEC0:15 ctrl35 str0 td
Significant strikes
35 of 71 · 49%
Total strikes
50 of 87 · 57%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:15
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
4
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 60%Body 26%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 77%Clinch 23%Ground 0%