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Sam Alvey

33-18-1 (1 NC)
40y·6' 2"·75" reach·Southpaw
0:51
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.35
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
60%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.9
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss August 2015. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again Aug 2022

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 24 recorded bouts, 758 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 67%Body 15%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 76%Clinch 20%Ground 4%
And how often each lands
Head37%
Body74%
Legs83%
Distance40%
Clinch73%
Ground67%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

10Wins5 KO · 1 SUB · 4 DEC
13Losses4 KO · 2 SUB · 7 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

3%
Watson
1%
Andrews
1%
Ferreira
8%
Kelly
0%
Brunson
11%
Theodorou
12%
Spicely
5%
Casey
5%
Nicholson
13%
Marquardt
2%
Leites
1%
Evans
0%
Emeev
38%
Prachnio
0%
Villante
0%
Nogueira
0%
Crute
17%
Abreu
3%
Spann
1%
Jung
1%
Marquez
13%
Turman
2%
Allen
0%
Oleksiejczuk

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.62100%24
R23.66140%16
R33.95151%12

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min3.28
Strikes absorbed / min3.63
Striking accuracyof everything thrown44%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed52%
Takedowns / 15 min0.06
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land14%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed82%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.1
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together6.91
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 24 bouts9.6m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

39.7%
Landed at range
1,450 thrown over 24 bouts
41.0%
Expected
against these opponents
−1.3pp
Gap
below expected
71.2%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LMichal OleksiejczukAug 2022KO R10:00 ctrl3 str0 td
Significant strikes
3 of 11 · 27%
Total strikes
3 of 11 · 27%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:56
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 33%Body 67%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LBrendan AllenFeb 2022SUB R20:07 ctrl24 str0 td
Significant strikes
24 of 57 · 42%
Total strikes
24 of 57 · 42%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:07
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 2:10
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 83%Body 8%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LWellington TurmanAug 2021S-DEC1:54 ctrl68 str0 td
Significant strikes
68 of 122 · 56%
Total strikes
114 of 169 · 67%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:54
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 81%Body 13%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 15%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LJulian MarquezApr 2021SUB R20:05 ctrl29 str0 td
Significant strikes
29 of 78 · 37%
Total strikes
29 of 78 · 37%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 2:07
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 72%Body 14%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 3%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
DDa Woon JungOct 2020S-DEC0:05 ctrl59 str0 td
Significant strikes
59 of 166 · 36%
Total strikes
69 of 177 · 39%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 64%Body 5%Legs 31%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 3%Ground 2%
This fight on UFCStats
LRyan SpannMay 2020S-DEC0:29 ctrl57 str0 td
Significant strikes
57 of 108 · 53%
Total strikes
103 of 156 · 66%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:29
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 70%Body 5%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 81%Clinch 19%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LKlidson AbreuJul 2019U-DEC2:33 ctrl28 str0 td
Significant strikes
28 of 77 · 36%
Total strikes
67 of 117 · 57%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
2:33
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 43%Body 18%Legs 39%
Position
Distance 75%Clinch 14%Ground 11%
This fight on UFCStats
LJimmy CruteFeb 2019KO R10:00 ctrl3 str0 td
Significant strikes
3 of 14 · 21%
Total strikes
3 of 14 · 21%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:49
Punches to Head On Ground
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LRogerio NogueiraSep 2018KO R20:00 ctrl34 str0 td
Significant strikes
34 of 82 · 41%
Total strikes
34 of 82 · 41%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:00
Punch to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 59%Body 6%Legs 35%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 6%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WGian VillanteJun 2018S-DEC0:00 ctrl53 str0 td
Significant strikes
53 of 122 · 43%
Total strikes
59 of 128 · 46%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 75%Body 4%Legs 21%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 8%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WMarcin PrachnioFeb 2018KO R11:41 ctrl10 str1 td
Significant strikes
10 of 19 · 53%
Total strikes
14 of 23 · 61%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
1:41
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:23
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 30%Body 10%Legs 60%
Position
Distance 90%Clinch 10%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LRamazan EmeevOct 2017U-DEC0:02 ctrl29 str0 td
Significant strikes
29 of 70 · 41%
Total strikes
56 of 99 · 57%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 41%Body 24%Legs 34%
Position
Distance 48%Clinch 48%Ground 3%
This fight on UFCStats
WRashad EvansAug 2017S-DEC0:05 ctrl40 str0 td
Significant strikes
40 of 87 · 46%
Total strikes
51 of 99 · 52%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 60%Body 40%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 50%Clinch 50%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LThales LeitesApr 2017U-DEC0:21 ctrl27 str0 td
Significant strikes
27 of 89 · 30%
Total strikes
50 of 112 · 45%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:21
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 81%Body 19%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 74%Clinch 26%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WNate MarquardtJan 2017U-DEC2:01 ctrl36 str0 td
Significant strikes
36 of 84 · 43%
Total strikes
45 of 95 · 47%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
2:01
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 64%Body 14%Legs 22%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 11%Ground 3%
This fight on UFCStats
WAlex NicholsonNov 2016U-DEC0:41 ctrl63 str0 td
Significant strikes
63 of 138 · 46%
Total strikes
65 of 140 · 46%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:41
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 62%Body 21%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WKevin CaseyAug 2016KO R20:32 ctrl59 str0 td
Significant strikes
59 of 114 · 52%
Total strikes
70 of 125 · 56%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:32
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:56
Punches to Head On Ground
Target
Head 61%Body 22%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 49%Clinch 29%Ground 22%
This fight on UFCStats
WEric SpicelyJul 2016SUB R10:20 ctrl8 str0 td
Significant strikes
8 of 15 · 53%
Total strikes
13 of 20 · 65%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:20
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:43
Guillotine Choke Standing
Target
Head 75%Body 25%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 63%Clinch 38%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LElias TheodorouJun 2016U-DEC1:35 ctrl24 str0 td
Significant strikes
24 of 43 · 56%
Total strikes
30 of 54 · 56%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:35
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 21%Body 42%Legs 38%
Position
Distance 63%Clinch 38%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LDerek BrunsonAug 2015KO R10:00 ctrl4 str0 td
Significant strikes
4 of 11 · 36%
Total strikes
6 of 13 · 46%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:19
Punches to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 50%Body 50%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 50%Clinch 50%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WDaniel KellyMay 2015KO R10:04 ctrl8 str0 td
Significant strikes
8 of 13 · 62%
Total strikes
8 of 13 · 62%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:04
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:49
Punch to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 75%Clinch 0%Ground 25%
This fight on UFCStats
WCezar FerreiraFeb 2015KO R10:03 ctrl4 str0 td
Significant strikes
4 of 8 · 50%
Total strikes
4 of 8 · 50%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:03
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:34
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 50%Clinch 0%Ground 50%
This fight on UFCStats
WDylan AndrewsNov 2014KO R10:02 ctrl6 str0 td
Significant strikes
6 of 7 · 86%
Total strikes
9 of 10 · 90%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:16
Punches to Head From Mount
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 17%Clinch 0%Ground 83%
This fight on UFCStats
LTom WatsonAug 2014U-DEC0:26 ctrl82 str0 td
Significant strikes
82 of 168 · 49%
Total strikes
91 of 177 · 51%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:26
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 87%Body 12%Legs 1%
Position
Distance 49%Clinch 49%Ground 2%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.