Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss March 2023. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Read the researchThe Record
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Sam Patterson
15-3-1
30y·6' 3"·78" reach·Orthodox
1:56
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.76
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
100%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
2.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 7 recorded bouts, 135 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 82%Body 11%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 1%Ground 6%
And how often each lands
Head40%
Body52%
Legs60%
Distance41%
Clinch50%
Ground67%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
6Wins3 KO · 3 SUB
2Losses1 KO · 1 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
0%
Ashmouz
33%
Lainesse
33%
Crosbie
2%
Barlow
0%
Waters
19%
Page
2%
Ponzinibbio
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R14.13100%7
R24.57—2
R31.20—1
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min3.58
Strikes absorbed / min2.82
Striking accuracyof everything thrown41%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed59%
Takedowns / 15 min0.67
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land50%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed50%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.3
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together6.4
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 7 bouts5.1m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
41.0%
Landed at range
305 thrown over 7 bouts
40.2%
Expected
against these opponents
+0.8pp
Gap
above expected
82.4%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
WSantiago PonzinibbioJul 2026KO R20:08 ctrl64 str0 td
Significant strikes
64 of 132 · 48%
Total strikes
65 of 133 · 49%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:08
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 3:06
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 91%Body 9%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 0%Ground 8%
LMichael PageMar 2026U-DEC2:47 ctrl12 str0 td
Significant strikes
12 of 64 · 19%
Total strikes
25 of 78 · 32%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
2:47
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 33%Body 33%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 17%Ground 0%
WTrey WatersSep 2025KO R10:00 ctrl25 str0 td
Significant strikes
25 of 48 · 52%
Total strikes
25 of 48 · 52%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:01
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 84%Body 0%Legs 16%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WDanny BarlowMar 2025KO R10:03 ctrl18 str0 td
Significant strikes
18 of 34 · 53%
Total strikes
18 of 34 · 53%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:03
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:10
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 78%Body 22%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 0%Ground 17%
WKiefer CrosbieJul 2024SUB R10:56 ctrl9 str1 td
Significant strikes
9 of 26 · 35%
Total strikes
13 of 31 · 42%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:56
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:50
Arm Triangle From MountTarget
Head 89%Body 11%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WYohan LainesseJan 2024SUB R10:41 ctrl5 str1 td
Significant strikes
5 of 10 · 50%
Total strikes
5 of 10 · 50%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:41
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:03
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LYanal AshmouzMar 2023KO R10:00 ctrl2 str0 td
Significant strikes
2 of 7 · 29%
Total strikes
2 of 7 · 29%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:15
Punches to Head From MountTarget
Head 50%Body 0%Legs 50%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%