Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss November 2025. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again May 2026
Read the researchThe Record
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Shamil Gaziev
14-3-0
36y·6' 4"·78" reach·Orthodox
6:03
Control / 15m
time on top
-1.98
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
75%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 7 recorded bouts, 165 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 72%Body 27%Legs 2%
Position
Distance 72%Clinch 19%Ground 8%
And how often each lands
Head38%
Body81%
Legs100%
Distance40%
Clinch74%
Ground67%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
4Wins2 KO · 1 SUB · 1 DEC
3Losses3 KO
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
39%
Buday
23%
Rozenstruik
80%
Mayes
1%
Petersen
0%
Acosta
41%
Pericic
0%
Nzechukwu
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.82100%7
R23.88101%4
R30.70—2
R40.40—1
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min2.94
Strikes absorbed / min4.92
Striking accuracyof everything thrown46%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed45%
Takedowns / 15 min1.06
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land33%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed83%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.3
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together7.86
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 7 bouts7.9m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
39.7%
Landed at range
295 thrown over 6 bouts
45.1%
Expected
against these opponents
−5.4pp
Gap
below expected
70.0%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
WKennedy NzechukwuAug 2026KO R10:00 ctrl2 str0 td
Significant strikes
2 of 5 · 40%
Total strikes
2 of 5 · 40%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:20
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LBrando PericicMay 2026KO R23:36 ctrl41 str1 td
Significant strikes
41 of 100 · 41%
Total strikes
51 of 110 · 46%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
3:36
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 3:44
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 73%Body 27%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 17%Ground 0%
LWaldo Cortes AcostaNov 2025KO R10:00 ctrl6 str0 td
Significant strikes
6 of 15 · 40%
Total strikes
6 of 15 · 40%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:22
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 67%Body 17%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WThomas PetersenFeb 2025KO R10:01 ctrl14 str0 td
Significant strikes
14 of 32 · 44%
Total strikes
14 of 32 · 44%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:01
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:12
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 64%Body 36%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 7%Ground 0%
WDon'Tale MayesAug 2024U-DEC11:58 ctrl31 str2 td
Significant strikes
31 of 46 · 67%
Total strikes
89 of 114 · 78%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
11:58
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 71%Body 26%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 39%Clinch 48%Ground 13%
LJairzinho RozenstruikMar 2024KO R44:32 ctrl22 str1 td
Significant strikes
22 of 68 · 32%
Total strikes
27 of 75 · 36%
Takedowns
1 of 7 · 14%
Control
4:32
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R4 5:00
to Eye injury to GazievTarget
Head 73%Body 23%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 77%Clinch 18%Ground 5%
WMartin BudayDec 2023KO R22:18 ctrl49 str0 td
Significant strikes
49 of 98 · 50%
Total strikes
60 of 114 · 53%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
2:18
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 0:56
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 71%Body 29%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 71%Clinch 10%Ground 18%