Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss August 2024. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Jul 2026
Read the researchThe Record
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Steve Erceg
14-5-0
31y·5' 8"·68" reach·Orthodox
1:42
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.42
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
20%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in May 2024, 75 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Fired again Jul 2026
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 9 recorded bouts, 565 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 74%Body 18%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 89%Clinch 10%Ground 2%
And how often each lands
Head42%
Body69%
Legs88%
Distance44%
Clinch86%
Ground90%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
5Wins1 KO · 4 DEC
4Losses2 KO · 2 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
10%
Dvorak
43%
Costa
2%
Schnell
2%
Pantoja
0%
Kara-France
0%
Moreno
32%
Osbourne
3%
Elliott
3%
Temirov
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.87100%9
R25.16133%7
R35.07131%6
R45.60—2
R53.20—2
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.56
Strikes absorbed / min4.14
Striking accuracyof everything thrown46%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed55%
Takedowns / 15 min1.09
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land27%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed67%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.4
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together8.7
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 9 bouts13.8m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
44.3%
Landed at range
1,132 thrown over 9 bouts
40.1%
Expected
against these opponents
+4.2pp
Gap
above expected
91.0%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LRamazan TemirovJul 2026KO R10:08 ctrl11 str0 td
Significant strikes
11 of 42 · 26%
Total strikes
11 of 42 · 26%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:08
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:21
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 82%Body 18%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 9%Ground 0%
WTim ElliottMay 2026U-DEC0:29 ctrl136 str1 td
Significant strikes
136 of 254 · 54%
Total strikes
136 of 254 · 54%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
0:29
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 90%Body 10%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 5%Ground 0%
WOde OsbourneAug 2025U-DEC4:47 ctrl20 str3 td
Significant strikes
20 of 53 · 38%
Total strikes
39 of 82 · 48%
Takedowns
3 of 10 · 30%
Control
4:47
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 50%Body 50%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 60%Clinch 30%Ground 10%
LBrandon MorenoMar 2025U-DEC0:00 ctrl116 str0 td
Significant strikes
116 of 279 · 42%
Total strikes
119 of 282 · 42%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 78%Body 9%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 99%Clinch 1%Ground 0%
LKai Kara-FranceAug 2024KO R10:00 ctrl9 str0 td
Significant strikes
9 of 29 · 31%
Total strikes
9 of 29 · 31%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:04
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 89%Body 0%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LAlexandre PantojaMay 2024U-DEC0:32 ctrl111 str1 td
Significant strikes
111 of 212 · 52%
Total strikes
129 of 233 · 55%
Takedowns
1 of 6 · 17%
Control
0:32
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 78%Body 14%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 3%Ground 1%
WMatt SchnellMar 2024KO R20:05 ctrl34 str0 td
Significant strikes
34 of 72 · 47%
Total strikes
34 of 72 · 47%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 0:26
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 71%Body 26%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 12%Ground 0%
WAlessandro CostaNov 2023U-DEC6:29 ctrl74 str1 td
Significant strikes
74 of 125 · 59%
Total strikes
104 of 162 · 64%
Takedowns
1 of 8 · 13%
Control
6:29
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 55%Body 34%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 58%Clinch 35%Ground 7%
WDavid DvorakJun 2023U-DEC1:29 ctrl54 str3 td
Significant strikes
54 of 140 · 39%
Total strikes
56 of 142 · 39%
Takedowns
3 of 4 · 75%
Control
1:29
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 52%Body 30%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 13%Ground 2%