Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss June 2022. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Jun 2026
Read the researchThe Record
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Steve Garcia
19-6-0
34y·6' 0"·75" reach·Southpaw
2:17
Control / 15m
time on top
+3.24
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
89%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
2.4
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 11 recorded bouts, 339 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 75%Body 15%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 69%Clinch 4%Ground 27%
And how often each lands
Head41%
Body74%
Legs92%
Distance42%
Clinch57%
Ground69%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
9Wins8 KO · 1 DEC
3Losses2 KO · 1 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
1%
Pena
86%
Ontiveros
47%
Maheshate
18%
Hooper
4%
Nuerdanbieke
13%
Costa
39%
Choi
40%
Nelson
0%
Kattar
2%
Onama
0%
Lopes
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R14.53100%11
R27.16158%6
R33.30—2
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min5.46
Strikes absorbed / min2.22
Striking accuracyof everything thrown48%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed59%
Takedowns / 15 min0.77
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land40%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed89%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.4
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together7.68
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 11 bouts6.2m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
41.6%
Landed at range
565 thrown over 11 bouts
46.9%
Expected
against these opponents
−5.3pp
Gap
below expected
88.6%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LDiego LopesJun 2026KO R20:00 ctrl47 str0 td
Significant strikes
47 of 104 · 45%
Total strikes
47 of 104 · 45%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:42
Punches to Head From GuardTarget
Head 70%Body 6%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WDavid OnamaNov 2025KO R10:04 ctrl33 str0 td
Significant strikes
33 of 62 · 53%
Total strikes
43 of 72 · 60%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:04
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:34
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 85%Body 15%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 79%Clinch 15%Ground 6%
WCalvin KattarJul 2025U-DEC0:03 ctrl85 str0 td
Significant strikes
85 of 250 · 34%
Total strikes
85 of 250 · 34%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:03
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 61%Body 27%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WKyle NelsonSep 2024KO R11:36 ctrl22 str0 td
Significant strikes
22 of 37 · 59%
Total strikes
39 of 62 · 63%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:36
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:59
Elbows to Head From Half GuardTarget
Head 91%Body 5%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 9%Clinch 0%Ground 91%
WSeungWoo ChoiJul 2024KO R10:37 ctrl15 str0 td
Significant strikes
15 of 27 · 56%
Total strikes
18 of 34 · 53%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:37
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:36
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 67%Body 13%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 60%Clinch 7%Ground 33%
WMelquizael CostaDec 2023KO R20:46 ctrl29 str0 td
Significant strikes
29 of 49 · 59%
Total strikes
41 of 66 · 62%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:46
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:01
Elbows to Head From MountTarget
Head 90%Body 7%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 14%Clinch 10%Ground 76%
WShayilan NuerdanbiekeApr 2023KO R20:15 ctrl17 str0 td
Significant strikes
17 of 40 · 43%
Total strikes
50 of 77 · 65%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:15
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 0:36
Punch to Body At DistanceTarget
Head 82%Body 18%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 71%Clinch 6%Ground 24%
WChase HooperOct 2022KO R10:17 ctrl29 str0 td
Significant strikes
29 of 44 · 66%
Total strikes
31 of 46 · 67%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:17
Knockdowns
3
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:32
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 66%Body 24%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 90%Clinch 0%Ground 10%
LMaheshateJun 2022KO R10:35 ctrl7 str0 td
Significant strikes
7 of 19 · 37%
Total strikes
9 of 21 · 43%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:35
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:14
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 57%Clinch 0%Ground 43%
WCharlie OntiverosOct 2021KO R25:55 ctrl34 str3 td
Significant strikes
34 of 49 · 69%
Total strikes
70 of 87 · 80%
Takedowns
3 of 5 · 60%
Control
5:55
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:51
Punches to Head From MountTarget
Head 88%Body 6%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 18%Clinch 3%Ground 79%
LLuis PenaFeb 2020U-DEC0:13 ctrl21 str1 td
Significant strikes
21 of 39 · 54%
Total strikes
98 of 153 · 64%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:13
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 71%Body 10%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 5%Ground 29%