Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss August 2022. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Read the researchThe Record
Back to the card
This fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStats
Takashi Sato
16-7-0
36y·5' 10"·73" reach·Southpaw
0:53
Control / 15m
time on top
-1.52
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
100%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.5
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 7 recorded bouts, 131 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 77%Body 18%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 58%Clinch 13%Ground 29%
And how often each lands
Head37%
Body66%
Legs78%
Distance32%
Clinch74%
Ground75%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
2Wins2 KO
5Losses1 KO · 2 SUB · 2 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
4%
Saunders
5%
Muhammad
23%
Witt
0%
Baeza
0%
Nelson
0%
Battle
16%
Gorimbo
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.11100%7
R22.50118%5
R31.9391%3
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min2.21
Strikes absorbed / min3.73
Striking accuracyof everything thrown41%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed44%
Takedowns / 15 min0.76
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land37%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed60%
Sub attempts / 15 min0
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together5.94
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 7 bouts8.5m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
31.5%
Landed at range
241 thrown over 7 bouts
39.3%
Expected
against these opponents
−7.7pp
Gap
below expected
77.0%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LThemba GorimboMay 2023U-DEC2:21 ctrl30 str2 td
Significant strikes
30 of 47 · 64%
Total strikes
56 of 76 · 74%
Takedowns
2 of 6 · 33%
Control
2:21
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 70%Body 30%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 17%Clinch 50%Ground 33%
LBryan BattleAug 2022KO R10:00 ctrl2 str0 td
Significant strikes
2 of 8 · 25%
Total strikes
2 of 8 · 25%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:44
Kick to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 0%Body 100%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LGunnar NelsonMar 2022U-DEC0:00 ctrl9 str0 td
Significant strikes
9 of 23 · 39%
Total strikes
16 of 34 · 47%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 44%Body 22%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LMiguel BaezaNov 2020SUB R20:02 ctrl15 str0 td
Significant strikes
15 of 58 · 26%
Total strikes
15 of 58 · 26%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 4:28
Arm Triangle From Side ControlTarget
Head 67%Body 27%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WJason WittJun 2020KO R10:11 ctrl18 str0 td
Significant strikes
18 of 21 · 86%
Total strikes
18 of 21 · 86%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:11
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:48
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 17%Clinch 0%Ground 83%
LBelal MuhammadSep 2019SUB R30:38 ctrl29 str1 td
Significant strikes
29 of 89 · 33%
Total strikes
34 of 95 · 36%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
0:38
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 1:55
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 79%Body 14%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WBen SaundersApr 2019KO R20:17 ctrl28 str0 td
Significant strikes
28 of 69 · 41%
Total strikes
33 of 74 · 45%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:17
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:18
Elbows to Head From GuardTarget
Head 89%Body 7%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 46%Clinch 7%Ground 46%