Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss January 2024. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
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Tom Nolan
11-1-0
26y·6' 3"·73" reach·Southpaw
2:43
Control / 15m
time on top
+1.10
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
50%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 6 recorded bouts, 255 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 50%Body 32%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 77%Clinch 16%Ground 6%
And how often each lands
Head35%
Body61%
Legs73%
Distance42%
Clinch64%
Ground55%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
6Wins2 KO · 1 SUB · 3 DEC
1Losses1 KO
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
0%
Motta
1%
Martinez
2%
Reyes
13%
Borshchev
14%
Campbell
45%
Ziam
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R15.58100%6
R24.6784%3
R33.4061%3
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.84
Strikes absorbed / min3.74
Striking accuracyof everything thrown45%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed48%
Takedowns / 15 min1.08
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land26%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed58%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.4
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together8.58
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 6 bouts9.0m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
42.2%
Landed at range
467 thrown over 6 bouts
42.1%
Expected
against these opponents
+0.1pp
Gap
above expected
68.4%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
WFares ZiamJun 2026U-DEC6:47 ctrl31 str2 td
Significant strikes
31 of 66 · 47%
Total strikes
65 of 116 · 56%
Takedowns
2 of 6 · 33%
Control
6:47
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 42%Body 35%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 42%Clinch 23%Ground 35%
WCharlie CampbellSep 2025SUB R10:34 ctrl26 str1 td
Significant strikes
26 of 61 · 43%
Total strikes
33 of 69 · 48%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:34
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 4:08
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 50%Body 35%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 12%Ground 0%
WViacheslav BorshchevFeb 2025U-DEC2:01 ctrl69 str1 td
Significant strikes
69 of 175 · 39%
Total strikes
111 of 236 · 47%
Takedowns
1 of 8 · 13%
Control
2:01
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
3
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 62%Body 16%Legs 22%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 7%Ground 1%
WAlex ReyesAug 2024U-DEC0:22 ctrl84 str0 td
Significant strikes
84 of 176 · 48%
Total strikes
104 of 198 · 53%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:22
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 48%Body 38%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 69%Clinch 31%Ground 0%
WVictor MartinezMay 2024KO R10:02 ctrl33 str0 td
Significant strikes
33 of 64 · 52%
Total strikes
41 of 72 · 57%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:50
Knee to Body In ClinchTarget
Head 42%Body 39%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 0%Ground 12%
LNikolas MottaJan 2024KO R10:00 ctrl12 str0 td
Significant strikes
12 of 20 · 60%
Total strikes
12 of 20 · 60%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:03
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 42%Body 42%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 8%Ground 0%