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Tony Ferguson

26-11-0
42y·5' 11"·76" reach·Orthodox
0:27
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.54
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
73%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss May 2020. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again May 2022

Read the research

The Odometer

Backwards

Crossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in August 2014, 89 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.

Fired again May 2022

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 24 recorded bouts, 1332 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 60%Body 19%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 2%Ground 7%
And how often each lands
Head37%
Body66%
Legs83%
Distance44%
Clinch63%
Ground77%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

15Wins5 KO · 6 SUB · 4 DEC
9Losses2 KO · 3 SUB · 4 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

32%
Nijem
1%
Riley
1%
Edwards
0%
Johnson
16%
Rio
15%
Kikuno
1%
Castillo
22%
Trujillo
29%
Tibau
12%
Thomson
4%
Barboza
0%
Vannata
0%
Anjos
0%
Lee
1%
Pettis
0%
Cerrone
0%
Gaethje
1%
Oliveira
1%
Dariush
0%
Chandler
1%
Diaz
1%
Green
0%
Pimblett
0%
Chiesa

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R14.82100%24
R25.37111%18
R33.7979%12
R46.74140%3
R56.552

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min4.91
Strikes absorbed / min4.37
Striking accuracyof everything thrown45%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed55%
Takedowns / 15 min0.39
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land35%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed66%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.9
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together9.28
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 24 bouts11.3m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

44.2%
Landed at range
2,738 thrown over 24 bouts
36.3%
Expected
against these opponents
+7.9pp
Gap
above expected
84.5%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LMichael ChiesaAug 2024SUB R10:00 ctrl10 str0 td
Significant strikes
10 of 18 · 56%
Total strikes
10 of 18 · 56%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 3:44
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 40%Body 10%Legs 50%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LPaddy PimblettDec 2023U-DEC0:00 ctrl62 str0 td
Significant strikes
62 of 105 · 59%
Total strikes
90 of 134 · 67%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 56%Body 37%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 0%Ground 18%
This fight on UFCStats
LKing GreenJul 2023SUB R30:13 ctrl54 str0 td
Significant strikes
54 of 123 · 44%
Total strikes
62 of 138 · 45%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
0:13
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 4:54
Arm Triangle From Half Guard
Target
Head 70%Body 20%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 4%Ground 4%
This fight on UFCStats
LNate DiazSep 2022SUB R40:08 ctrl80 str1 td
Significant strikes
80 of 172 · 47%
Total strikes
80 of 172 · 47%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
0:08
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R4 2:52
Guillotine Choke From Bottom Guard
Target
Head 29%Body 29%Legs 43%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LMichael ChandlerMay 2022KO R20:00 ctrl20 str0 td
Significant strikes
20 of 50 · 40%
Total strikes
27 of 58 · 47%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 0:17
Kick to Head At Distance Front kick
Target
Head 65%Body 10%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 0%Ground 15%
This fight on UFCStats
LBeneil DariushMay 2021U-DEC0:05 ctrl15 str0 td
Significant strikes
15 of 34 · 44%
Total strikes
37 of 59 · 63%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 67%Body 33%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 40%Clinch 7%Ground 53%
This fight on UFCStats
LCharles OliveiraDec 2020U-DEC0:05 ctrl19 str0 td
Significant strikes
19 of 42 · 45%
Total strikes
26 of 49 · 53%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 74%Body 16%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 79%Clinch 5%Ground 16%
This fight on UFCStats
LJustin GaethjeMay 2020KO R50:00 ctrl136 str0 td
Significant strikes
136 of 296 · 46%
Total strikes
136 of 296 · 46%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R5 3:39
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 47%Body 26%Legs 26%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WDonald CerroneJun 2019DOC R20:00 ctrl104 str0 td
Significant strikes
104 of 200 · 52%
Total strikes
104 of 200 · 52%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Doctor's stoppage, R2 5:00
Target
Head 63%Body 24%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 99%Clinch 1%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WAnthony PettisOct 2018KO R20:04 ctrl114 str0 td
Significant strikes
114 of 194 · 59%
Total strikes
115 of 195 · 59%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:04
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 5:00
to Corner Stoppage
Target
Head 58%Body 18%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 4%Ground 4%
This fight on UFCStats
WKevin LeeOct 2017SUB R30:02 ctrl54 str0 td
Significant strikes
54 of 103 · 52%
Total strikes
57 of 106 · 54%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 4:02
Triangle Choke From Bottom Guard
Target
Head 74%Body 11%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 74%Clinch 2%Ground 24%
This fight on UFCStats
WRafael Dos AnjosNov 2016U-DEC0:00 ctrl199 str0 td
Significant strikes
199 of 401 · 50%
Total strikes
200 of 402 · 50%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 63%Body 14%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WLando VannataJul 2016SUB R20:00 ctrl66 str0 td
Significant strikes
66 of 119 · 55%
Total strikes
69 of 122 · 57%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
3
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 2:22
D'Arce Choke After Drop to Ground
Target
Head 64%Body 26%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WEdson BarbozaDec 2015SUB R20:20 ctrl61 str0 td
Significant strikes
61 of 116 · 53%
Total strikes
69 of 127 · 54%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:20
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 2:54
D'Arce Choke On Ground
Target
Head 69%Body 16%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 74%Clinch 2%Ground 25%
This fight on UFCStats
WJosh ThomsonJul 2015U-DEC1:46 ctrl83 str0 td
Significant strikes
83 of 149 · 56%
Total strikes
101 of 167 · 60%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
1:46
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 61%Body 18%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 70%Clinch 5%Ground 25%
This fight on UFCStats
WGleison TibauFeb 2015SUB R10:46 ctrl11 str1 td
Significant strikes
11 of 38 · 29%
Total strikes
17 of 45 · 38%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:46
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:37
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 45%Body 27%Legs 27%
Position
Distance 73%Clinch 0%Ground 27%
This fight on UFCStats
WAbel TrujilloDec 2014SUB R22:02 ctrl20 str1 td
Significant strikes
20 of 55 · 36%
Total strikes
38 of 76 · 50%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
2:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 4:19
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 60%Body 25%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 90%Clinch 5%Ground 5%
This fight on UFCStats
WDanny CastilloAug 2014S-DEC0:07 ctrl23 str0 td
Significant strikes
23 of 80 · 29%
Total strikes
71 of 130 · 55%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:07
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
1
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 43%Body 13%Legs 43%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 0%Ground 4%
This fight on UFCStats
WKatsunori KikunoMay 2014KO R10:37 ctrl38 str1 td
Significant strikes
38 of 67 · 57%
Total strikes
40 of 69 · 58%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
0:37
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:06
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 92%Body 3%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 3%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WMike RioOct 2013SUB R10:18 ctrl5 str0 td
Significant strikes
5 of 15 · 33%
Total strikes
7 of 18 · 39%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:18
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 1:52
D'Arce Choke On Ground
Target
Head 60%Body 20%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 0%Ground 20%
This fight on UFCStats
LMichael JohnsonMay 2012U-DEC0:00 ctrl45 str0 td
Significant strikes
45 of 176 · 26%
Total strikes
45 of 176 · 26%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 51%Body 16%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WYves EdwardsDec 2011U-DEC0:10 ctrl61 str1 td
Significant strikes
61 of 232 · 26%
Total strikes
62 of 234 · 26%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:10
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 62%Body 10%Legs 28%
Position
Distance 89%Clinch 11%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WAaron RileySep 2011DOC R10:02 ctrl31 str0 td
Significant strikes
31 of 82 · 38%
Total strikes
31 of 82 · 38%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Doctor's stoppage, R1 5:00
Jaw Injury
Target
Head 71%Body 19%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 6%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WRamsey NijemJun 2011KO R11:15 ctrl21 str2 td
Significant strikes
21 of 38 · 55%
Total strikes
29 of 46 · 63%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
1:15
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:54
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 90%Body 5%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 10%Ground 24%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.