Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss September 2021. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Read the researchThe Record
Back to the card
This fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStats
Tony Gravely
23-9-0
34y·5' 5"·69" reach·Orthodox
6:27
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.65
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
60%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.3
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in April 2021, 94 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Fired again Sep 2021
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 8 recorded bouts, 309 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 63%Body 16%Legs 21%
Position
Distance 59%Clinch 19%Ground 22%
And how often each lands
Head38%
Body65%
Legs82%
Distance39%
Clinch72%
Ground59%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
5Wins3 KO · 2 DEC
4Losses1 KO · 1 SUB · 2 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
32%
Johns
66%
Freitas
70%
Birchak
34%
Maness
76%
Oliveira
4%
Munoz
11%
Basharat
22%
Henry
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.38100%8
R23.2195%7
R34.15123%5
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min3.82
Strikes absorbed / min4.47
Striking accuracyof everything thrown48%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed44%
Takedowns / 15 min5.4
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land41%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed52%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.3
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together8.29
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 8 bouts11.0m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
38.6%
Landed at range
472 thrown over 8 bouts
42.3%
Expected
against these opponents
−3.7pp
Gap
below expected
67.5%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LVictor HenryMar 2023S-DEC3:22 ctrl75 str3 td
Significant strikes
75 of 154 · 49%
Total strikes
90 of 169 · 53%
Takedowns
3 of 17 · 18%
Control
3:22
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 59%Body 27%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 69%Clinch 24%Ground 7%
LJavid BasharatSep 2022U-DEC1:43 ctrl33 str2 td
Significant strikes
33 of 113 · 29%
Total strikes
39 of 119 · 33%
Takedowns
2 of 13 · 15%
Control
1:43
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 52%Body 6%Legs 42%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 9%Ground 0%
WJohnny MunozJun 2022KO R10:03 ctrl5 str0 td
Significant strikes
5 of 15 · 33%
Total strikes
6 of 16 · 38%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:03
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:08
Punch to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 80%Body 0%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 40%Clinch 0%Ground 60%
WSaimon OliveiraJan 2022U-DEC11:28 ctrl46 str11 td
Significant strikes
46 of 99 · 46%
Total strikes
66 of 132 · 50%
Takedowns
11 of 15 · 73%
Control
11:28
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 78%Body 9%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 52%Clinch 9%Ground 39%
LNate ManessSep 2021KO R22:26 ctrl36 str1 td
Significant strikes
36 of 68 · 53%
Total strikes
44 of 77 · 57%
Takedowns
1 of 6 · 17%
Control
2:26
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:10
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 50%Body 22%Legs 28%
Position
Distance 69%Clinch 22%Ground 8%
WAnthony BirchakApr 2021KO R24:34 ctrl39 str4 td
Significant strikes
39 of 75 · 52%
Total strikes
61 of 105 · 58%
Takedowns
4 of 6 · 67%
Control
4:34
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:31
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 79%Body 13%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 44%Clinch 3%Ground 54%
WGeraldo de FreitasNov 2020S-DEC9:55 ctrl49 str7 td
Significant strikes
49 of 101 · 49%
Total strikes
86 of 144 · 60%
Takedowns
7 of 17 · 41%
Control
9:55
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 76%Body 8%Legs 16%
Position
Distance 55%Clinch 10%Ground 35%
LBrett JohnsJan 2020SUB R34:10 ctrl26 str5 td
Significant strikes
26 of 44 · 59%
Total strikes
43 of 66 · 65%
Takedowns
5 of 7 · 71%
Control
4:10
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 2:53
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 35%Body 23%Legs 42%
Position
Distance 19%Clinch 81%Ground 0%