Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss December 2024. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Read the researchThe Record
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Vitor Petrino
14-2-0
29y·6' 2"·77" reach·Orthodox
5:02
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.53
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
63%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.8
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in December 2024, 59 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 10 recorded bouts, 358 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 64%Body 20%Legs 16%
Position
Distance 79%Clinch 4%Ground 16%
And how often each lands
Head42%
Body78%
Legs87%
Distance47%
Clinch64%
Ground76%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
8Wins3 KO · 2 SUB · 3 DEC
2Losses1 KO · 1 SUB
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
41%
Turkalj
63%
Prachnio
38%
Bukauskas
36%
Pedro
12%
Smith
5%
Jacoby
71%
Lane
29%
Petersen
9%
Asplund
41%
Spivac
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.89100%10
R23.30114%8
R33.76130%7
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min3.24
Strikes absorbed / min2.71
Striking accuracyof everything thrown48%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed51%
Takedowns / 15 min2.6
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land46%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed79%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.7
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together5.95
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 10 bouts11.0m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
45.7%
Landed at range
525 thrown over 9 bouts
42.5%
Expected
against these opponents
+3.2pp
Gap
above expected
72.9%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
WSerghei SpivacAug 2026U-DEC6:07 ctrl64 str4 td
Significant strikes
64 of 99 · 65%
Total strikes
126 of 177 · 71%
Takedowns
4 of 6 · 67%
Control
6:07
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 47%Body 20%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 6%Ground 27%
WSteven AsplundMar 2026U-DEC1:17 ctrl92 str0 td
Significant strikes
92 of 161 · 57%
Total strikes
92 of 162 · 57%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
1:17
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 64%Body 20%Legs 16%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WThomas PetersenOct 2025KO R33:03 ctrl31 str1 td
Significant strikes
31 of 54 · 57%
Total strikes
33 of 61 · 54%
Takedowns
1 of 6 · 17%
Control
3:03
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 0:26
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 81%Body 16%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 42%Clinch 29%Ground 29%
WAusten LaneJul 2025SUB R13:03 ctrl3 str1 td
Significant strikes
3 of 6 · 50%
Total strikes
17 of 22 · 77%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
3:03
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 4:16
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 67%Body 0%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 33%Clinch 0%Ground 67%
LDustin JacobyDec 2024KO R30:40 ctrl40 str0 td
Significant strikes
40 of 96 · 42%
Total strikes
40 of 96 · 42%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
0:40
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 3:44
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 68%Body 15%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LAnthony SmithMay 2024SUB R10:14 ctrl10 str1 td
Significant strikes
10 of 22 · 45%
Total strikes
10 of 22 · 45%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
0:14
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:00
Guillotine Choke On GroundTarget
Head 40%Body 40%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WTyson PedroMar 2024U-DEC5:24 ctrl27 str3 td
Significant strikes
27 of 75 · 36%
Total strikes
33 of 82 · 40%
Takedowns
3 of 5 · 60%
Control
5:24
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 59%Body 15%Legs 26%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 0%Ground 7%
WModestas BukauskasNov 2023KO R22:19 ctrl8 str1 td
Significant strikes
8 of 26 · 31%
Total strikes
14 of 34 · 41%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
2:19
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:03
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 75%Body 25%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 0%Ground 13%
WMarcin PrachnioJul 2023SUB R38:39 ctrl44 str4 td
Significant strikes
44 of 81 · 54%
Total strikes
72 of 111 · 65%
Takedowns
4 of 6 · 67%
Control
8:39
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 3:42
Arm Triangle From Half GuardTarget
Head 73%Body 20%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 55%Clinch 2%Ground 43%
WAnton TurkaljMar 2023U-DEC6:13 ctrl39 str7 td
Significant strikes
39 of 82 · 48%
Total strikes
60 of 104 · 58%
Takedowns
7 of 9 · 78%
Control
6:13
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
4
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 69%Body 26%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 72%Clinch 5%Ground 23%