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Warlley Alves

15-8-0
35y·5' 11"·72" reach·Orthodox
3:19
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.91
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
75%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.6
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss August 2018. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again Oct 2023

Read the research

The Odometer

Backwards

Crossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in August 2015, 55 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.

Fired again Oct 2023

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 16 recorded bouts, 485 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 55%Body 23%Legs 22%
Position
Distance 78%Clinch 15%Ground 7%
And how often each lands
Head37%
Body71%
Legs77%
Distance44%
Clinch73%
Ground69%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

8Wins3 KO · 3 SUB · 2 DEC
8Losses3 KO · 1 SUB · 4 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

73%
Junior
27%
Jouban
47%
Taleb
0%
Covington
13%
Barberena
0%
Usman
25%
Touahri
34%
Aliev
14%
Krause
0%
Moraes
67%
Brown
62%
Lazzez
7%
Wells
14%
Dalby
0%
Aliskerov
4%
Magomedov

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.77100%16
R22.79101%13
R34.02145%8

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min3.04
Strikes absorbed / min3.95
Striking accuracyof everything thrown48%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed50%
Takedowns / 15 min1.22
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land50%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed62%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.8
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together6.99
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 16 bouts10.0m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

44.0%
Landed at range
861 thrown over 16 bouts
38.4%
Expected
against these opponents
+5.6pp
Gap
above expected
67.8%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LAbus MagomedovMay 2024U-DEC0:37 ctrl16 str0 td
Significant strikes
16 of 38 · 42%
Total strikes
17 of 39 · 44%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:37
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 44%Body 25%Legs 31%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LIkram AliskerovOct 2023KO R10:00 ctrl12 str0 td
Significant strikes
12 of 16 · 75%
Total strikes
12 of 16 · 75%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:07
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 25%Body 8%Legs 67%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LNicolas DalbyJan 2023S-DEC2:09 ctrl66 str1 td
Significant strikes
66 of 144 · 46%
Total strikes
75 of 153 · 49%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
2:09
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 68%Body 11%Legs 21%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 6%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LJeremiah WellsJun 2021KO R20:22 ctrl15 str0 td
Significant strikes
15 of 17 · 88%
Total strikes
15 of 17 · 88%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:22
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
1
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 0:30
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 7%Body 47%Legs 47%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 13%Ground 20%
This fight on UFCStats
WMounir LazzezJan 2021KO R11:36 ctrl17 str1 td
Significant strikes
17 of 21 · 81%
Total strikes
24 of 30 · 80%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
1:36
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:35
Kick to Body At Distance
Target
Head 53%Body 41%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 41%Clinch 24%Ground 35%
This fight on UFCStats
LRandy BrownNov 2019SUB R24:17 ctrl3 str3 td
Significant strikes
3 of 11 · 27%
Total strikes
8 of 18 · 44%
Takedowns
3 of 3 · 100%
Control
4:17
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 1:22
Triangle Choke From Bottom Guard
Target
Head 33%Body 0%Legs 67%
Position
Distance 33%Clinch 0%Ground 67%
This fight on UFCStats
WSergio MoraesMay 2019KO R30:01 ctrl72 str0 td
Significant strikes
72 of 157 · 46%
Total strikes
72 of 157 · 46%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:01
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 4:13
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 50%Body 14%Legs 36%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 3%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LJames KrauseAug 2018KO R21:02 ctrl28 str1 td
Significant strikes
28 of 64 · 44%
Total strikes
39 of 78 · 50%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
1:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:28
Flying Knee Head
Target
Head 71%Body 21%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 64%Clinch 36%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WSultan AlievMay 2018DOC R23:24 ctrl29 str0 td
Significant strikes
29 of 50 · 58%
Total strikes
54 of 78 · 69%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
3:24
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Doctor's stoppage, R2 5:00
Target
Head 24%Body 41%Legs 34%
Position
Distance 34%Clinch 66%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WSalim TouahriOct 2017U-DEC3:45 ctrl38 str2 td
Significant strikes
38 of 95 · 40%
Total strikes
55 of 113 · 49%
Takedowns
2 of 7 · 29%
Control
3:45
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 39%Body 24%Legs 37%
Position
Distance 74%Clinch 24%Ground 3%
This fight on UFCStats
LKamaru UsmanNov 2016U-DEC0:00 ctrl25 str0 td
Significant strikes
25 of 73 · 34%
Total strikes
26 of 74 · 35%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 44%Body 36%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 8%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LBryan BarberenaMay 2016U-DEC1:56 ctrl79 str0 td
Significant strikes
79 of 136 · 58%
Total strikes
82 of 139 · 59%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
1:56
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 66%Body 30%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 89%Clinch 11%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WColby CovingtonDec 2015SUB R10:00 ctrl2 str0 td
Significant strikes
2 of 4 · 50%
Total strikes
2 of 4 · 50%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 1:26
Guillotine Choke Standing
Target
Head 0%Body 50%Legs 50%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WNordine TalebAug 2015SUB R24:18 ctrl17 str2 td
Significant strikes
17 of 38 · 45%
Total strikes
23 of 46 · 50%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
4:18
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 4:11
Guillotine Choke After Drop to Guard
Target
Head 53%Body 24%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 71%Clinch 18%Ground 12%
This fight on UFCStats
WAlan JoubanNov 2014U-DEC4:02 ctrl47 str1 td
Significant strikes
47 of 106 · 44%
Total strikes
51 of 111 · 46%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
4:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 85%Body 13%Legs 2%
Position
Distance 66%Clinch 9%Ground 26%
This fight on UFCStats
WMarcio Alexandre JuniorMay 2014SUB R37:39 ctrl19 str2 td
Significant strikes
19 of 39 · 49%
Total strikes
44 of 67 · 66%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
7:39
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 0:25
Guillotine Choke After Drop to Guard
Target
Head 63%Body 21%Legs 16%
Position
Distance 37%Clinch 16%Ground 47%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.