Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss April 2022. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Read the researchThe Record
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William Knight
11-5-0
38y·5' 10"·73" reach·Orthodox
2:00
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.68
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
60%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.1
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 7 recorded bouts, 174 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 52%Body 17%Legs 31%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 17%Ground 17%
And how often each lands
Head40%
Body57%
Legs68%
Distance39%
Clinch88%
Ground91%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
5Wins3 KO · 2 DEC
4Losses1 KO · 3 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
44%
Camur
1%
Jung
1%
Cherant
5%
Menifield
17%
Grishin
16%
Clark
0%
Prachnio
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.03100%7
R21.8089%6
R31.8088%6
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min2.62
Strikes absorbed / min3.3
Striking accuracyof everything thrown56%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed35%
Takedowns / 15 min1.78
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land40%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed48%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.4
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together5.92
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 7 bouts13.2m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
39.3%
Landed at range
295 thrown over 7 bouts
40.3%
Expected
against these opponents
−1.0pp
Gap
below expected
75.2%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LMarcin PrachnioFeb 2023U-DEC0:00 ctrl8 str0 td
Significant strikes
8 of 33 · 24%
Total strikes
8 of 33 · 24%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 0%Body 25%Legs 75%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LDevin ClarkApr 2022KO R32:09 ctrl21 str1 td
Significant strikes
21 of 41 · 51%
Total strikes
39 of 59 · 66%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
2:09
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 3:21
Punches to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 52%Body 14%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 76%Clinch 24%Ground 0%
LMaxim GrishinFeb 2022U-DEC2:37 ctrl21 str3 td
Significant strikes
21 of 68 · 31%
Total strikes
32 of 79 · 41%
Takedowns
3 of 9 · 33%
Control
2:37
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 43%Body 24%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 76%Clinch 24%Ground 0%
WAlonzo MenifieldDec 2021U-DEC0:43 ctrl55 str1 td
Significant strikes
55 of 111 · 50%
Total strikes
82 of 139 · 59%
Takedowns
1 of 4 · 25%
Control
0:43
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 58%Body 25%Legs 16%
Position
Distance 69%Clinch 18%Ground 13%
WFabio CherantAug 2021KO R10:02 ctrl14 str0 td
Significant strikes
14 of 24 · 58%
Total strikes
14 of 24 · 58%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:58
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 36%Body 7%Legs 57%
Position
Distance 79%Clinch 0%Ground 21%
LDa Woon JungApr 2021U-DEC0:09 ctrl17 str0 td
Significant strikes
17 of 29 · 59%
Total strikes
38 of 50 · 76%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
0:09
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 29%Body 6%Legs 65%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WAleksa CamurSep 2020U-DEC6:39 ctrl38 str4 td
Significant strikes
38 of 54 · 70%
Total strikes
58 of 77 · 75%
Takedowns
4 of 5 · 80%
Control
6:39
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 76%Body 8%Legs 16%
Position
Distance 26%Clinch 24%Ground 50%