Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss August 2022. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Feb 2024
Read the researchThe Record
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Zac Pauga
7-3-0
38y·6' 2"·76" reach·Orthodox
4:36
Control / 15m
time on top
+1.73
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
0%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 4 recorded bouts, 175 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 50%Body 33%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 71%Clinch 28%Ground 1%
And how often each lands
Head49%
Body83%
Legs94%
Distance57%
Clinch84%
Ground100%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
1Wins1 DEC
3Losses2 KO · 1 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
0%
Usman
58%
Wright
15%
Bukauskas
29%
Guskov
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R14.57100%4
R24.0689%3
R34.70—2
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.46
Strikes absorbed / min2.73
Striking accuracyof everything thrown62%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed58%
Takedowns / 15 min0.38
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land7%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed100%
Sub attempts / 15 min0
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together7.19
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 4 bouts9.8m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
56.9%
Landed at range
218 thrown over 4 bouts
—
Expected
against these opponents
—
Gap
below the cutoffs
—
Coverage
from real records
It takes 5 bouts before this comparison says anything. There are 4 here, so it's only showing what they actually landed.
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LBogdan GuskovFeb 2024KO R11:04 ctrl17 str0 td
Significant strikes
17 of 26 · 65%
Total strikes
19 of 28 · 68%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
1:04
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:38
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 41%Body 12%Legs 47%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 18%Ground 0%
LModestas BukauskasJun 2023U-DEC2:17 ctrl67 str1 td
Significant strikes
67 of 117 · 57%
Total strikes
72 of 123 · 59%
Takedowns
1 of 5 · 20%
Control
2:17
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 52%Body 37%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 87%Clinch 10%Ground 3%
WJordan WrightFeb 2023U-DEC8:40 ctrl59 str0 td
Significant strikes
59 of 85 · 69%
Total strikes
85 of 114 · 75%
Takedowns
0 of 6 · 0%
Control
8:40
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 53%Body 36%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 36%Clinch 64%Ground 0%
LMohammed UsmanAug 2022KO R20:00 ctrl32 str0 td
Significant strikes
32 of 50 · 64%
Total strikes
33 of 51 · 65%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 0:36
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 44%Body 28%Legs 28%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 3%Ground 0%